Economy

Last edited Wed Mar 18, 2026, 03:41 AM - Edit history (13)

Most Recent First (reverse chronological order)


FRIDAY MARCH 13 (REPORTS)

# GDP Q4 - 2nd estimate (there are 3 estimates in total)
The first estimate of 1.4% growth rate has now been revised down in a shocking surprise to just a 0.7% growth rate (these are quarterly growths at an annualized rates). The 2025 whole year growth now stands at 2.2%
LBN THREAD: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143631718


# PCE Inflation Index, January,

LBN THREAD: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143631718
Note the above thread is 99% focused on the GDP Q4 = 0.7% story, but it also reports that core PCE inflation reached 3.1% on a 12-month (year-over-year) basis
These graphs definitely show that inflation is not steady, and not coming down:
. . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3631734

The CORE PCE is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge for forecasting FUTURE inflation. This doesn't fit the media's typical narrative that inflation is coming down or at worst "sticky".

Remember the graphs (and OP) on inflation are JANUARY. The FEBRUARY ones are likely to be uglier, given the CPI ones for February that came out 2 days ago --
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3630564

The Iran thing and the oil and LNG and fertilizer price spikes? The attack on Iran began on Saturday, February 28. So none of this is in the January report or graphs above. And isn't in the February CPI graphs either and won't be in the February PCE when that comes out April 9.

So, the above (January and February) may very likely be remembered as the "good ol' days" of the Trump II kakistocracy.

SOURCE URLS: 3/13/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE


# Personal Income and Personal Spending, January,

SOURCE URLS: 3/13/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE - https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2026
. . . FULL RELEASE AND TABLES - https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-03/pi0126.pdf

# Durable-goods orders, January,

# JOLTS - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, January,

Job openings inched up in January, data shows
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-inched-up-in-january-data-shows-141624127.html

ECONOMY GROUP thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1116101837

# Consumer sentiment (prelim), University of Michigan, March,

SOURCE: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH 10Y: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf




THURSDAY MARCH 12 (REPORTS)

# Unemployment Insurance Claims, week ending March 7

US weekly jobless claims edge down, Reuters, 3/12/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-edge-124244249.html
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 213,000 for the week ended March 7,

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.850 million during the week ended February 28,

* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This report's permalink: https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260435.pdf
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"
* The source URL has graphs, so one can see the trend over a year


# Trade Deficit, January

US trade deficit dropped by 25% in January, a win for Trump, Yahoo Finance, 3/12/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trade-deficit-dropped-by-25-in-january-a-win-for-trump-140526564.html

# Housing Starts, February

# Building Permits, February



WEDNESDAY MARCH 11 (REPORTS)

# CPI Consumer Prices Index, February

LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143630492

The 12 month graphs in the OP look nice and tame and even trending down slightly. But they both benefit by hot January 2025 to February 2025 numbers dropping out of the 12-month window: regular CPI: 2.73% annualized, and core CPI: 3.10% annualized. For the trend, what drops out of the 12 month window is every bit as important as what enters the 12-month window

GRAPHS: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3630564

Percent increases, seasonally adjusted numbers, ANNUALIZED
1 mo 3 mo 12mo
---- ---- ----
3.3% 3.0% 2.4% Regular CPI (includes food & energy)
2.6% 3.0% 2.5% Core CPI (does not have food or energy)

2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Federal Reserve Target

As for the trend,

For the regular CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 2.2% in November but is now at 3.0%

For the core CPI, The 3-month average increase (annualized) was at a local low of 1.6% in November but is now at 3.0%

All of this is before any Iran effects of course (the U.S. - Israeli attack began on February 28).

And in March, the 12-month average is not helped at all by what drops out of the 12-month window: just a very small 0.40% annualized for the regular CPI, and an also very small 0.83% annualized for the core CPI. Not to mention the Iran effects hit full-force in March (if the war keeps on, even more so in April).

News summary https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
CPI data series: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
Core CPI data series: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E

As a sampler, here is one of the graphs



TUESDAY MARCH 10 (REPORTS)

# ADP Pulse Weekly Report of Private Payroll, last 4 weeks

ADP Pulse: +15,500 jobs/week average for the 4 weeks ending 2/21/26
Multiplying by 365 / (12*7) to "monthesize it" to the average month: 67,351

For comparison, the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their big "First Friday" report found 86,000 net private sector jobs LOST in February

The ultimate source: https://www.adpresearch.com/
and look for "NER Pulse"

# NFIB optimism index Feb.

# Existing home sales Feb.


The ultimate source: https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales



FRIDAY MARCH 6 (Reports)


# Big "First Friday" BLS jobs report headlining non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for February, released 3/6/26

Nonfarm payroll jobs FEBRUARY: -92,000, yes, MINUS 92,000 (and with prior 2 months revisions, -69,000, it's 161,000 fewer jobs than was reported in the January report that was released February 11),

(Contrast to the January report, released 2/11/26, where they said there were +130,000 jobs gained in January -- which was revised down a little bit to a still hefty (by recent standards) +126,000 in the February report)

The unemployment rate in the past 3 months: 4.4% to 4.3% to 4.4%

Black unemployment rate: Feb'25: 6.0%, , Jan'26: 7.3%, , Feb'26: 7.7%
The corresponding white unemployment rates are 3.8%, 3.7%, and 3.7%

Private sector nonfarm payroll jobs: -86,000 (Compare to Wednesday's non-government ADP report of +63,000 private sector jobs)

The big downward revision of December resulted in a 2025 job gain total of 116,000, which is an average of only 9,667/month

LBN Thread: democraticunderground.com/10143627754

The one (and only) bright spot: U-6 "underemployment rate" fell from 8.1% to 7.9%. This is essentially the official unemployment rate PLUS they count people who said they have looked for work in the past 12 months (vs. 4 weeks for the official unemployment rate) PLUS they count part-timers who say they want full-time work as underemployed (vs. the official unemployment rate that simply counts them as employed).

Ultimate source of the latest release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Permanent copy of this February report is at: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062026.htm
Permanent copy of the previous (January) report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02112026.htm

Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

Re: how can barely any jobs have been created in the past 12 months (156k, which averages to just 13k/month), while the unemployment rate has edged up only marginally (from 4.2% in February 2025 to 4.4% in February 2026?) - see 2 URLs just above

Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 8/28/25
The old number: 150,000 jobs per month needed to keep the unemployment rate stable
The new number: 57,000 +/- 25,000 at a 90% confidence interval (think Heinz 57 varieties)
FFI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143563268#post4

Diane Swonk at KPMG, 3/6/26: at 1:32 in the video: 10,000 +/- 30,000 jobs needed to hold unemployment rate steady
from https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/chief-economist-breaks-down-the-latest-jobs-report/vi-AA1XHf22
She doesn't say where that number comes from. It's quite significantly lower than the August 2025 Federal Reserve St. Louis number above.

The Labor Force has increased by only 42,000 in the past 12 months (an average of 3,500 per month). It's down 9,000 from May.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

# Retail sales January delayed report: December: 0.0%, January: -0.2% ( -0.4% expected ), seasonally adjusted

Retail sales sagged in January, Wall St. Journal 3/6/26 (no paywall at this MSN-hosted article)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/retail-sales-sagged-in-january/ar-AA1XF2Mp

From the Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html -- > https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html :
. . . Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USN), Not Seasonally Adjusted:
. . . . . . https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USN
. . . Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USS), Seasonally Adjusted:
. . . . . . https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS

These retail sales figures aren't inflation-adjusted, BTW. So after adjusting for inflation, people bought a lot less stuff
CPI month-over-month: December: +0.3%, January: +0.2% -- https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

So December was about 0.0 - 0.3 = 0.3% less stuff
and January was about -0.2 - 0.2 = 0.4% less stuff

# CBO's annual report on Social Security
Social Security benefits predicted to run out earlier than expected: Report, Newsweek, 3/6/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/social-security-benefits-predicted-to-run-out-earlier-than-expected-report/ar-AA1XGLdH

CBO says the OASI trust fund (OASI = Old-Age and Survivors Insurance) is expected to run out in 2032, a year earlier than previously projected, due to higher inflation and lower payroll tax revenues than projected in last year's report. Once reserves are exhausted, SSA would likely only be able to pay about 80 percent of promised benefits, barring congressional intervention.

The article doesn't say a word about the DI (Disability Insurance) trust fund or OASDI. The Social Security Trustees, in their annual reports, combines the OASI and DI trust funds into a hypothetical OASDI trust fund for purposes of calculating an insolvency date (because they have in the past borrowed from each other and would be expected to do so again). The trustees' 2026 report is expected in April, May, or June (when they put out the report has been erratic for many years).

THURSDAY MARCH 5 (Reports)

# Initial jobless claims week ending Feb. 28

US jobless claims filings unchanged from previous week at 213,000 as layoffs remain low, AP,
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-jobless-claims-filings-unchanged-from-previous-week-at-213-000-as-layoffs-remain-low/ar-AA1XAxBu

* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This report's permalink: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260226
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"
* The source URL has graphs, so one can see the trend over a year

# Productivity, Q4, 1st estimate, Commerce Department

These are quarterly numbers at an annualized rate. This follows a big dip in GDP between Q3 (4.4%) and Q4 1st estimate (1.4%).

Q4 nonfarm productivity: +2.8% Q/Q vs. +1.9% consensus and +5.2% prior (revised from +4.9%), according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday.

Unit labor costs: +2.8% Q/Q vs. +2.1% consensus and -1.8% prior (revised from -1.9%).

Q4 productivity rises more than expected, labor costs jump past consensus,
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/q4-productivity-rises-more-than-expected-labor-costs-jump-past-consensus/ar-AA1XACjx

From the source: www.bls.gov/productivity
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/prod2_03052026.htm


# Import price index, Feb.

# Challenger, Gray & Christmas on layoffs and hires
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143626940
Another: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/in-nice-reprieve-job-cut-announcements-declined-last-month-125204515.html
Job cuts announcements declined last month. A complex report.


WEDNESDAY MARCH 4 (Reports)

# ADP employment (private sector workforce) - February (non-govt.) ADP processes payrolls for 20% of the private sector payroll employed, and estimates somehow the other 80%. It's a non-governmental report, so the report's timing is not subject to the government shutdown/startup schedule.

ADP: Private Payrolls: February:: +63,000, (January was revised down from +22,000 to just +11,000)
LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143626323

Another, Yahoo Finance:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-private-employers-added-63000-jobs-in-february-the-best-monthly-showing-since-july-132604002.html

Another:- ADP jobs report shows white-collar losses in February. Quartz
ADP jobs report shows white-collar losses in February. Quartz

The ultimate source: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERNSA

Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERSA

# S&P final U.S. services PMI Feb.

# ISM services Feb.

# Federal Reserve's Beige Book

Fed's Beige Book paints mixed picture of economy as hiring remains flat and tariffs raise costs, Yahoo Finance, 3/4/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-beige-book-paints-mixed-picture-of-economy-as-hiring-remains-flat-and-tariffs-raise-costs-202936510.html

US economy got off to a choppy start in 2026, the Fed finds. Here’s the good and bad news., MarketWatch, 3/4/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-economy-got-off-to-a-choppy-start-in-2026-the-fed-finds-here-s-the-good-and-bad-news/ar-AA1Xx985

TUESDAY MARCH 3 (Reports)

Nothing. The ADP Pulse report on private payrolls that normally comes out every Tuesday will not come out today becase the monthly national employment report comes out this week (Wednesday).


MONDAY MARCH 2 (Reports)

# S&P final U.S. manufacturing PMI Feb.

# ISM manufacturing Feb



FRIDAY FEB 27 (REPORTS)

# PPI Producer Price Index aka wholesale prices, January -

# PPI January:+0.5% (Nov:+0.2%, Dec:+0.4%), 12 months: +2.8% all seasonally-adjusted
. . .(the 12-month is +2.9% in not-seasonally-adjusted data which for some reason the BLS highlights for 12-month numbers),
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services - what the BLS considers core PPI although they never use the term "core" ): January: +0.3%, 12 months +3.4%
# PPI ex food and energy: January: +0.8%, 12 months: +3.6%

# LBN THREAD: democraticunderground.com/10143622956
. . . referring to https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/27/ppi-january-2026-.html

# BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
# PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
# PPI ex food & energy http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104
# Note that the BLS never uses the term "core" anywhere in the news release ppi.nr0.htm
# CNBC story (URL above): "Trade services prices surged 2.5%, helping boost pressures on wholesale inflation."
# See also Table A in ppi.nr0.htm: Trade Services month-over-month percentage increases in the last 6 months were:
. . . -2.1%, +1.6%, -0.9%, -0.5%, +1.8%, +2.5%
# AP story == https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-wholesale-prices-arrive-hotter-133757417.html

# MarketWatch == https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/wholesale-prices-rise-sharply-and-point-to-persistent-inflation/ar-AA1Xd1r3
The Marketwatch story exclusively uses the PPI and the PPI without food, energy, and trade services, and -- following BLS practice -- does not mention at all a PPI without food and energy. They say that the trade margin category "is not a reliable measure of prices"

Below are the annualized numbers so they can be compared to the Fed's 2.0% target:

1 mo 3 mo 12 mo
5.9% 4.7% 2.8% PPI
3.8% 3.4% 3.4% PPI ex Food, Energy, & Trade Services
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Fed Target

There is a PPI ex food and energy that the media calls "core" (the BLS doesn't use the term "core" anywhere in their news release ppi.nr0.htm, or anywhere else that I know of)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104
1 mo 3 mo 12 mo
10.0% 6.1% 3.6% PPI ex Food & Energy - the BLS does not even show this in ppi.nr0.htm

I use the one that is PPI ex food, energy, and trade services because that is the one the BLS highlights (and did so in the pre-Trump past too, so it's not a conniving Krasnov thing). And for consistency with my previous reports -- Trade services, which is wholesaler's margin, is very volatile from month to month (see above where, from Table A, I display the last 6 months, month-by-month). The idea of core prices is to remove the most volatile components so that it's a better predictor of FUTURE inflation, and that's why the BLS does and did highlight the w/o food, energy, and trade services version. In this month (January) Trade Services is the main engine driving the PPI;s extraordinary monthly growth, and even more so that of the PPI ex food, energy..

The rolling 3 month average of the PPI ex food, energy, and trade services has been trending down from a recent peak of 5.1% in September, to 3.4% in January.(annualized)

But I showed PPI ex Food, Energy above as a line below my usual table because the media is making an enormous hoo hah about it, particularly the 0.8% January over December increase (which annualizes to 10.0%)..

Still, the PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services is well above 3% annualized in the 1 month (3.8%), 3 month (3.4%), and 12 month (3.4%) averages..


THURSDAY FEB 26 (REPORTS)

# Unemployment insurance claims



The article also summarizes some recent jobs reports

* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This report's permalink: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260226
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"
* The source URL has graphs, so one can see the trend over a year


WEDNESDAY FEB 25 (REPORTS)

# Nvidia's Earnings report - I've never made a Calendar item out of a single stock's report, but while I was doing Tuesday's update, I kept reading comments about how it is a really big deal and a test of AI's financial strength and market sentiment around AI... well here it is:

Nvidia’s blowout earnings report disappoints Wall Street as stock sinks 5%, CNBC, 2/25/26
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/26/nvidia-nvda-stock-price-q4-earnings.html


TUESDAY FEB 24 (REPORTS)

# ADP NER Pulse private payrolls weekly estimate - For the four weeks ending February 7, 2026, private employers added an average of 12,750 jobs a week. It was the fourth straight week  of  strengthening  job  gains.
SOURCE: https://www.adpresearch.com/ and search for Pulse
https://www.adpresearch.com/what-happened-to-labor-market-dynamism/ search for "NER Pulse" to see the graph
GRAPH:
Multiplying by 365 / (12*7) to "monthesize it" to the average month: 55,400
Compare to latest from BLS: 172,000 PRIVATE SECTOR jobs added in January
. . . https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
Economy Group Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1116101728

# S&P Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities), December
Up 1.4%, same as November, which was also up 1.4%.

# Consumer confidence, February

91.2.   88.6 was expected.   Previous time: 89.0.

From the source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/


For graphs, click above link -- the uptick is almost imperceptible. It remains at about the same level as it averaged in the first 9 months of the pandemic



MONDAY FEB 23 (REPORTS)

# Factory orders December
-0.7%.  ; +0.2% expected.  ; Previous time: +2.7%.   Year-over-year: +3.7%



FRIDAY FEB 20

# GDP Q4 FIRST ESTIMATE
2.5% annualized growth expected, 1.4% is what happened according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Q3 was 4.4% annualized rate (I know I know, but the AI spending counts as GDP, even if it produces nothing useful)

Yes, the reported GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted

Full year GDP's: 2024: 2.8%. 2025: 2.2%
LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143619093
ULTIMATE SOURCE:
. . . https://bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
. . . https://bea.gov/news/current-releases
. . . https://bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025

Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump’s rosy narrative, CNN, 2/21/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/analysis-these-two-new-economic-numbers-blew-a-hole-in-trump-s-rosy-narrative/ar-AA1WNbxe
#1 Trade balance,   #2 GDP growth (see Thursday on trade balance)

# PCE Inflation for December - Fed's favorite inflation gauge
Expected: month-over-month: 0.3%, year-over-year: 2.8% (both numbers same as November's)
What happened: month-over-month: regular PCE (includes food and energy) +0.4%
Core PCE (doesn't include food or energy): +0.4%
12 month average (year-over-year): regular PCE: +2.9%, core PCE: +3.0%
LBN thread (this leads off with the GDP, but also includes PCE inflation): https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143619093
GRAPHS: rolling averages of 3 months and 12 months. And month-over-month bar chart. Both regular and core:
. . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3619273

This inflation gauge fully includes substitution effects, so for example if beef prices are way up and a lot of consumers switch to turkey necks, this inflation gauge will show a subdued rise or even a drop in the meat price index. But I suspect the Fed likes it because it tends to produce a lower inflation rate than the CPI.

* SOURCE URLS:: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/pi1225.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE

# Personal Income and Spending for December

* SOURCE URLS:: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-december-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/pi1225.pdf

# S&P flash U.S. services PMI for February

# S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI for February

# New home sales for November and December

# Consumer sentiment (prelim) for February

Consumer sentiment in February shows high prices weigh on US households, but Supreme Court could offer relief, Yahoo Finance, 2/20/26 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-in-february-shows-high-prices-weigh-on-us-households-but-supreme-court-could-offer-relief-161122277.html

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for February came in at 56.6, up 0.4% from January, but below last year's level of 64.7. The small increase was lower than the 57.2 reading expected by economists. (Be sure to look at the graph that shows the scale of the teeny tiny up-tick still leaving it at incredibly low levels historically.

ULTIMATE SOURCE: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH, 10 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
GRAPH, 50 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf


THURSDAY FEB 19

# Leading economic index for December Conference Board (non-governmental)

US leading indicators forecast slow start to 2026, Wall St. Journal via MSN (no paywall), 2/17/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-leading-indicators-forecast-slow-start-to-2026/ar-AA1WG60g

ULTIMATE SOURCE: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/index.cfm

# Unemployment insurance claims

US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected amid labor market stability (dropped 23k to 206k in week ending Feb 14 ## Continuing claims week ending Feb 7 ROSE 17k to 1.869 M), Reuters, 2/19/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-134542016.html
. . .continuing claims suggested that laid-off workers were experiencing difficulties finding new positions.
The median duration of unemployment is near four-year highs. The lack of hiring has significantly impacted recent college graduates, who because of no or limited work history, cannot file for unemployment benefits and are not captured in the claims data.

* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This report's permalink: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260219
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# U.S. trade deficit for December (the Commerce Dept)

U.S. trade deficit slipped to $901 billion last year amid Trump tariffs, AP, 2/19/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-trade-deficit-slipped-901-134134850.html
From $904 billion in 2024 to $901 B in 2025.
The trade gap surged from January-March as U.S. companies tried to import foreign goods ahead of Trump’s taxes, then narrowed most of the rest of the year.

Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump’s rosy narrative, CNN, 2/21/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/analysis-these-two-new-economic-numbers-blew-a-hole-in-trump-s-rosy-narrative/ar-AA1WNbxe
#1 Trade balance,   #2 GDP growth (see Friday on GDP)

# Advanced U.S. trade balance in goods for December

See above AP story

# Mortgages rates

Mortgage rates drop to lowest level in nearly 4 years
https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/mortgage-rates-drop-to-lowest-level-in-nearly-4-years-110045487.html


WEDNESDAY FEB 18

# Housing Starts for November and December
Housing starts jump to 5-month high in December
Go to Stock Market Today https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-gain-for-3rd-straight-day-nasdaq-jumps-as-traders-brush-aside-ai-worries-210052721.html
and scroll down the page quite a ways, or search the page for "housing starts"
Yes, I wish Yahoo would give these articles their own URL.

**FRED graph shown in the article, graph is titled: "New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started, Total Units" from 2016 onward


# Building Permits for November and December

December was 1.32 million vs. 1.31 million expected and 1.27 million previously, according to https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

# Durable Goods Orders for December

Durable goods orders were down 1.4% in December vs. down 2.0% expected, and +5.4% previously according to https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar . I believe these are seasonally adjusted. I don't have an explanation, I haven't looked for an article.


# Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January
Go to Stock Market Today https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-gain-for-3rd-straight-day-nasdaq-jumps-as-traders-brush-aside-ai-worries-210052721.html
and scroll down the page quite a ways, or search the page for "industrial production"
Yes, I wish Yahoo would give these articles their own URL.

US industrial production grew in January by widest monthly margin since March 2025 (+0.7%. It was the largest month-on-month percentage increase since March 2025,


# Minutes of Fed's January FOMC meeting


TUESDAY FEB 17

Nothing


MONDAY FEB 16

None scheduled, President's Day holiday


FRIDAY FEB 13

# Consumer price index Jan.

LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143615668

A lot of response from the Krasnov Krasnov! Brigade. But they were eerily absent when the latest PPI (Producer Price Index, aka Wholesale Prices) report reported a 0.5% increase in December (that's a 6.0% annualized rate), and 3.0% over the past 12 months (their core measure was 3.5% over the past 12 months) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143608234 (see Reply #1 for more on that 1/30/26 report with the title, "Wholesale prices rise sharply and show new Fed chief could confront stubborn inflation" )

Back to CPI - here's the core part of it, which is considered by the Federal Reserve as more representative of underlying trends and more predictive of FUTURE inflation - assertions that have been back-tested. This one is a rolling 3 month average, so that it's more than a "One off" of the latest month, but with much more recency than year-over-year. It shows a distinctive up-turn



The regular CPI's 3 month rolling average also has risen the last 2 months in a row, although not as sharply. So much for "cooling inflation" I guess.

Chicago Fed's Goolsbee says interest rates could fall 'a fair bit more,' but more inflation progress is needed, Yahoo Finance, 2/13/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chicago-feds-goolsbee-says-interest-rates-could-fall-a-fair-bit-more-but-more-inflation-progress-is-needed-210239035.html
He is concerned about services inflation which tends to be persistent and not driven by tariffs (so an easing of tariffs isn't going to help much with services inflation, and if the impact of tariffs is a one-time thing, as many think, that's not going to help with services inflation. Says inflation has been above the target for more than 4.5 years now)

THURSDAY FEB 12

# Unemployment insurance claims
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
This report's permalink: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260212
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"



# Existing home sales Jan.




WEDNESDAY FEB 11

# The big "First Friday" monthly BLS jobs report that produces the headline non-farm payroll jobs number and unemployment rate - January

Ultimate source of the latest release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Permanent copy of this January report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_02112026.htm

LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143614651

The before and after the big jobs revisions, month by month:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3615236

Here's a summary table showing the annual totals:

Annual Totals, in thousands

Year Before After Difference
2022] 4555 4526 -29
2023] 2594 2515 -79
2024] 2012 1459 -553
2025] 584 181 -403

2025 comes out to an average of 15k jobs/month. If you remove January, it is 21k/month. A barely above-the-waterline record.

And yet most media headlines are about a big surge in jobs (130,000) in January. 130,000 is not a big number, but relatively speaking it's a "surge" compared to the pathetic average monthly jobs growth in 2025.

The unemployment rate (from a separate survey, the Household Survey) fell from 4.4% to 4.3% (It was 4.0% in January 2025, a year ago)
The Household Survey's "Employed" number increased by just 689,000 since January 2025 ( 57,000 / month average ).

Increase in private sector payroll jobs (for comparison to ADP): +172k


TUESDAY FEB 10

# NFIB optimism index, January

US small-business confidence slipped in January, Wall St. Journal, 2/10/26 (no paywall or gimmicks at this MSN-hosted article)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/us-small-business-confidence-slipped-in-january/ar-AA1W33sy

# US consumer delinquencies jump to highest in almost a decade, Bloomberg, 2/10/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-delinquencies-jump-to-highest-in-almost-a-decade/ar-AA1W4vwC
I haven't had time to read this article, but title is sure gloomy.

# Employment Cost index, Q4 - Considered the best statistic on wages/salaries and benefits, and the Federal Reserve's favorite source on the same.

Economy Group post: https://www.democraticunderground.com/1116101681
From the source: https://www.bls.gov/eci/

Some context:

[1] The Pandemic’s Effect on Measured Wage Growth, The WHite House, 4/19/21 ((Biden era))
. . . Original link now gone, thanks to Krasnov: https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/
. . . The Archive.org link: https://web.archive.org/web/20220208080743/https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2021/04/19/the-pandemics-effect-on-measured-wage-growth/

# Import price index
This is another one I don't have time to look into now

# Retail sales - caution: not inflation-adjusted, so one gets a distorted view of increases in retail sales, when often most of that is simply due to price increases. It is seasonally adjusted.

RETAIL SALES DECEMBER over November: +0.0%, Inflation was 0.31%, so inflation-adjusted retail sales were down about 0.3% for the month

RETAIL SALES for the 12 month period through December (i.e. year-over-year): +2.4%, Inflation: +2.7%, so inflation-adjusted retail sales were down about 0.3% for the 12-month period

LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143614155

From the Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html -- > https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html :
Remember the below numbers are not inflation adjusted
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USN), Not Seasonally Adjusted: +10.9% == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USN
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USS), Seasonally Adjusted: +-0.0% == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS
And so the seasonal adjustment process turned a 10.9% increase to 0.0% in December (remember it's the Christmas month ho ho ho)

CPI inflation: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0


MONDAY FEB 09

Nothing

FRIDAY FEB 06

# Consumer sentiment (preliminary) - February
Consumer sentiment hits highest level since August, but is down 11% from year ago
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-hits-highest-level-since-august-but-down-11-from-year-ago-as-inflation-job-worries-weigh-155341347.html
SOURCE: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH, 10 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
GRAPH, 50 years: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsh.pdf
It's definitely an uptick, but a very small uptick. It's at about the lowest point seen in the post-pandemic 2022 inflation peak, and definitely below the worst levels of the housing bubble and dot-com crashes.



THURSDAY FEB 05

# JOLTS - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey - December -

Job openings sink in December to lowest level since 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-sink-in-december-to-lowest-level-since-2020-151605057.html



# Unemployment insurance claims
US weekly jobless claims rise by more than expected
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-sell-off-builds-as-tech-rout-continues-bitcoin-plunges-210019775.html
(and scroll way down)

More on continuing claims for the week ending January 24 was 1,844,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 8,000 from 1,827,000 to 1,819,000.
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260205
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"


WEDNESDAY FEB 04

# ADP employment (private sector workforce) - January. ADP processes payrolls for 20% of the private sector payroll employed, and estimates somehow the other 80%. It's a non-governmental report, so the report's timing is not subject to the government shutdown/startup schedule.

Private payrolls rose by just 22,000 in January, far short of expectations, ADP says, CNBC, 2/4/26
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143611175
The total was less than the downwardly revised 37,000 increase in December and below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 45,000.

The ultimate source: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

Seasonal adjustment turned a 2.171 Million job loss into a 22,000 gain - details: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143611175#post15

Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERNSA

Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ADPMNUSNERSA



TUESDAY FEB 03

# ISM Services - January

MONDAY FEB 02

# ISM manufacturing - January -


FRIDAY JAN 30

# PPI Producer price index (aka wholesale prices) (delayed report) DECEMBER

REGULAR PPI: DECEMBER: +0.5% (Oct: +0.1%, Nov: +0.2%), 12 months: +3.0%
CORE PPI (ex food, energy, trade services): DECEMBER: +0.4%, 12 months: +3.5%

LBN THREAD: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143608234
BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

----- Data Series ----
PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
Core PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116 (wo food, energy, trade services)
The actual one month numbers (December over November) to 2-digit accuracy: PPI: +0.50%, Core PPI: +0.36%. When annualized, they are 6.0% and 4.4% respectively.
Below are the annualized numbers so they can be compared to the Fed's 2.0% target:

1 mo 3 mo 12 mo
6.0% 3.3% 3.0% PPI
4.4% 5.1% 3.5% CORE PPI = PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services
2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Fed Target

There is also a core PPI data series where core is defined as the PPI ex food and energy
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104

I use the one that is PPI ex food, energy, and trade services because that is the one the BLS highlights (and did so in the pre-Trump past too, so it's not a conniving Krasnov thing). Trade services, which is the wholesaler's margin, is very volatile from month to month.

THURSDAY JAN 29

# Unemployment insurance claims
Week ending Jan 24 -1,000 to 209,000, 205,000 expected, (Not seasonally adjusted: 231,181)
Continuing Claims, week ending Jan 17: -38k to 1.827M
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-21ccf4e6ebbcabbc424e2feb56f0fee7
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260129
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

# U.S. trade deficit (delayed report) NOVEMBER
US trade deficit widens by the most in nearly 34 years in November, Reuters, 1/29/28
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-trade-deficit-widens-most-144236696.html
* DU LBN THREAD (also of Reuters article) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143607655


* The U.S. trade deficit isn’t actually falling due to tariffs. It’s still near a record high, MarketWatch 1/29/26
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fools-gold-the-u-s-trade-deficit-isnt-actually-falling-due-to-tariffs-its-still-near-a-record-high-17412f1b



# U.S. productivity (revised) Q3 (was 4.9% in the initial report)

# Wholesale inventories (delayed report) NOVEMBER

# Factory orders (delayed report) NOVEMBER

WEDNESDAY JAN 28

# FOMC interest-rate decision and Powell press conference (2:00 P.M. and 2:30 P.M. ET respectively)
As expected, they kept the interest rate unchanged. There were 2 dissents, both wanting a rate reduction. I haven't looked or seen any jibber jabber about how many rate reductions are expected in 2026.

TUESDAY JAN 27

# Consumer confidence, Conference Board, January
Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy falls sharply in January to lowest level since 2014, AP, 1/27/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-confidence-u-economy-falls-151544532.html
below even the lowest level of the pandemic
DU LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143606137
From the source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/
For graphs, click above link, or the DU LBN thread link


MONDAY JAN 26

# Durable-goods orders, NOVEMBER (delayed report)
Durable goods jump more than expected in November, 1/26/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/durable-goods-jump-more-than-expected-in-november/ar-AA1V0fWT


FRIDAY JAN 23

# Consumer sentiment (final) January
Consumer sentiment remains depressed in January as higher costs, weakening labor market weigh on outlook, Yahoo Finance, 1/23/26 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-remains-depressed-in-january-as-higher-costs-weakening-labor-market-weigh-on-outlook-154756985.html
. . . The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 56.4, up 3.5 points from December but some 21% below last year's level of 71.7. (the previous preliminary data number was 54)
. . . Inflation expectations showed some signs of improvement, with year-ahead inflation forecasts falling to 4% from 4.2%. (from another article: five to ten year inflation expectations inched up to 3.3% from 3.2% last month.)
. . . Bloomberg - consumer sentiment is at a 5-month high == https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-consumer-sentiment-reaches-five-month-high-in-broad-gain/ar-AA1UPxug
. . . Progree - See 10 YEAR CHART - it barely caused the 3-month moving average to turn up just a bit, from a very low level
* SOURCE URL: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
. . . 10 YEAR CHART: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf

# S&P flash U.S. services PMI January
# S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI January
Economy shows signs of cooling, S&P finds. Tariffs still weigh on growth and hiring, MarketWatch, 1/23/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/economy-shows-signs-of-cooling-s-p-finds-tariffs-still-weigh-on-growth-and-hiring/ar-AA1UPu58



THURSDAY JAN 22

# PCE inflation FOR NOVEMBER - the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. This is stale, considering that there are numbers out for both the December CPI and the December PPI (producer price index)
* LBN THREAD: Fed's main gauge shows inflation at 2.8% in November, edging further away from target, CNBC, 1/22/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143603115
* It was a combined October and November report. From a Yahoo article: "For portions of October lacking detailed information from the Consumer Price Index, which is used to calculate PCE, the BEA used an average of September and November figures."
* On a month-over-month basis, both November over October, and October over September came in at 0.2% -- that's true for both the headline number and the core number
* On a year-over-year basis, both the headline and the core numbers were 2.8%
* SOURCE URLS: 1/22/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-october-and-november-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-01/pi10-1125.pdf
. . . PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
. . . CORE PCE DATA SERIES: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/PCEPILFE


# GDP Q3 (first revision) - expected to be 4.3% annualized rate, same as the initial estimate. It turned out to be 4.4% annualized rate
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-spending-pushes-us-economy-133751928.html
. . . From the PCE article: “The strength of the consumption data adds further weight to the idea that the economy might not need additional policy support, with real consumption rising by 0.3% in both months,” noted Capital Economics economist Thomas Ryan.

# Personal spending and personal income for NOVEMBER -- see:
* SOURCE URLS: 1/22/26 release: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income
. . . CURRENT RELEASE: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-october-and-november-2025
. . . Full Release and Tables: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-01/pi10-1125.pdf

# Unemployment insurance claims
. . . US applications for jobless benefits inch up last week to a still-low 200,000 (( +1,000 to 200,000, 207k expected, week ending Jan 17 # Continuing Claims, week ending Jan 10: -26k to 1.85M ) AP, 1/22/26 == https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-applications-jobless-benefits-inch-133912723.html
* SOURCE URL: The CURRENT one is always at: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf . . . this release's permalink is at https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/eta20260122
* Permalinks for the current one and recent previous ones: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases
. . . and search the page for "Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report"

WEDNESDAY JAN 21

# Pending home sales US pending home sales plunge to five-month low in December, Reuters, 1/21/26
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-pending-home-sales-slump-five-month-low-december-2026-01-21/
Pending home sales index tumbles 9.3%, reverse gains notched since late summer
Spending on new single-family housing projects slumps 1.3% in October

TUESDAY JAN 20 - None scheduled

MONDAY JAN 19 - Martin Luther King Jr. Day, None scheduled

Friday Jan 16

# Industrial production and capacity utilization - US manufacturing output unexpectedly increases in December, Reuters, 1/16/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-december-industrial-production-rises-142129670.html


Thursday Jan 15

# Unemployment insurance claims
. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims - Week Ending January 10: 198,000, down 9,000.
. . Note: Not Seasonally Adjusted: 330,684, Seasonally Adjusted: 198,000, quite a big seasonal adjustment
. Continuing Claims (week ending Jan 3): 1,884,000, down 19,000, 1/15/26
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20260098.pdf
. Reuters - good article, they say the low seasonally adjusted initial claims level might be due to problem with seasonal adjustment. They also mention the NSA number above (330,684)
. . https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-unexpectedly-fall-amid-seasonal-adjustment-challenges-2026-01-15/

# Import prices

# Empire state and Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing surveys


Wednesday Jan 14

# Retail sales for November (delayed report) (KEEP IN MIND THESE ARE NOT INFLATION-ADJUSTED but they are seasonally adjusted)
Numbers are the increase over the previous month unless specified otherwise e.g. "12 months" which is the 12 month average aka year-over-year
Retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.6% in November, and rose 3.3% in the past 12 months through November (while inflation thru November was 2.7%, so retail sales gained only 0.6% over the 12 months in inflation-adjusted dollars), AP, 1/14/26 == https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-rose-better-expected-134204407.html
(The previous 2 months were pathetic: September was +0.1% (while inflation was +0.3%), October was -0.1% (there are no month-to-month inflation numbers for October or November; again all of these are seasonally adjusted numbers, but not inflation-adjusted),
The MahatmaKaneJeeves LBN Thread: Wholesale inflation was softer than expected, RETAIL SALES moved higher in November, 1/14/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143598490
. . . [] From the Source: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html -> https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html :
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USN), Not Seasonally Adjusted: -0.8% == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USN
. . . [] Advance Retail Sales: Retail Trade and Food Services (MARTSMPCSM44X72USS), Seasonally Adjusted: +0.6% (September was +0.1%, October was -0.1%, ) == https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MARTSMPCSM44X72USS
. Very strange that in November, the seasonal adjustment process revised the November over October upward from -0.8% to +0.6%. October over September got seaonally revised downward from +4.9% to -0.1%

# PPI (Producer Price Index, aka Wholesale Prices) for November (delayed report)
Numbers are the increase over the previous month unless specified otherwise like "12 months" which is the 12 month average aka year-over-year
PPI for November +0.2% (Oct was +0.1%), 12 months: +3.0%
CORE PPI excluding food, energy and trade services: +0.2% (was +0.7% in October) 12 months: +3.5%, 1/14/26
Note that in November, for both the PPI and Core PPI, the 0.2% increase, when annualized is 2.4%, which exceeds the Fed's 2.0% target. And the year-over-year numbers (PPI: +3.0%, Core PPI: +3.5%) are well over the Fed's 2.0% target
. MahatmaKaneJeeves LBN Thread: Wholesale inflation was softer than expected, retail sales moved higher in November, 1/14/26 == https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143598490
. Ultimate Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

# Existing home sales (delayed report)


Tuesday Jan 13

# CPI Consumer Price Index - The headline (all items) number was as expected: December (over November): +0.3%, Year-over-year: +2.7%
The Core measure (which excludes food and energy) was a 0.1 percentage points below expectations: December (over November): +0.2%, Year-over-year: 2.6%. Note that the one-month numbers when annualized (3.6% and 2.4%) are over the Fed's 2.0% target, as are both year-over-year numbers.

The actual numbers calculated from the index values for more accuracy:
All items CPI: December (over November): +0.307% (which annualizes to 3.75%),
Core CPI: December (over November): +0.239% (which annualizes to 2.91%),

LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143597741

# New home sales

# Budget deficit

# NFIB optimism index

Monday Jan 12

# Nothing

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9

# Big BLS jobs report : +50,000 non-farm payroll jobs, unemployment rate ticked down from 4.5% to 4.4%. A LOT more to this story, for example, thanks to downward revisions of October and November, there are actually 26k fewer non-farm payroll jobs than were reported in the previous (December 16) report. AND , didya know, in December actual (meaning not-seasonally adjusted) jobs fell by 192,000, but seasonal adjustment turned that to a positive 50,000? Could YOU use a seasonal adjustment like that? AND, President literal asswipe posted several jobs numbers 12 hours before the 8:30 AM ET release time (did you know that they show the president and the entire Council of Economic Advisers the jobs report the evening before it is released?). AND there is probably a couple other things to say, I'll have to review the thread...
the LBN thread link, full of information, is https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143595598

# Consumer Sentiment - a slight improvement but graph still looks awful
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf

THURSDAY JANUARY 8

# Unemployment insurance claims: 208,000, an 8,000 increase over last week

# Q3 Productivity - I haven't looked at it, but from a headline I saw, it's a big jump thanks to the 4.3% Q3 GDP (annualized rate) reported in December,

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7

# ADP private payroll employment, +41,000 PRIVATE payroll jobs (by the way, in comparison the BLS jobs report that came out Friday 1/9, with the headline +50,000 jobs number, had a private payroll jobs increase of +37,000, a very unusally close match to the ADP number). (ADP has payroll data for about 20% of the private work force, and somehow they estimate the other 80%)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143594195
https://adpemploymentreport.com/

# ISM Services,

# JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, - kinda bad report. lowest job openings in over a year for one thing. The number of job openings fell in November, while the hiring rate was a paltry 3.2%. There were 1.1 unemployed people for every available job, the highest level since early 2021. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoff-plans-for-december-hit-lowest-monthly-level-since-2024-in-positive-sign-challenger-says-131808125.html (the article is almost all about the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report, but the above blurb is in reference to the JOLTS report)


TUESDAY, JANUARY 6

* S&P Services PMI -- shows sector grew at slowest pace in 8 months in December
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-49000-sp-500-jumps-to-new-high-in-record-setting-start-to-year-194907643.html
(and scroll down that page)

MONDAY, JANUARY 5

* ISM Manufacturing -- US Factory Malaise Continues as Gauge Drops to One-Year Low, Bloomberg 1/5/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-malaise-continues-gauge-152835595.html
head count shrinks for 11th straight month. (weren't tariffs supposed to fix that?)


FRIDAY, JANUARY 2

* S&P Manufacturing - I haven't seen the report

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims, 199,000. It was 214,000 in last week's report
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20251646.pdf

TUESDAY DECEMBER 30

* Case-Shiller home prices index - I saw a headline: home prices up for a 3rd straight month, and up 1.4% since October 2024


MONDAY DECEMBER 29

* Pending home sales - I saw a headline: up 3.35% from November and up 2.6% year-over-year (non-govt, National Association of Realtors)


WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 24

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims - 224,000 was reported December 18. 214,000 was reported today, December 24, a drop of 10,000 . But continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.92 million (govt)

TUESDAY DECEMBER 23

* GDP Q3 first estimate (delayed report, normally released late September). (govt) -- it came in at a 4.3% annualized rate, well above the 3.3% rate economists were expecting. Various factors cited in media: an acceleration of EV purchases prior to the Sept 30 expiration of tax credits. A lot of spending by big tech companies on AI (investment spending boosts the GDP number). A substantial rise in exports (up 8.8% annualized rate) and a small drop in imports -- both these boost the GDP number, Federal spending also played a sizable role, a reflection of the large uptick in defense spending as well as buyouts for federal workers. Also, it reflects the "K-shaped" economy -- higher-income people flush with growing stock market wealth increased their spending, while lesser-income people struggled with higher prices and a weakening job market.
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587157 ## From the source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits

* Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, non-govt) - result: the 5th straight month of decline. The worst since April, and at about the same level as seen in the 2020 pandemic year. Except there is no microbe-driven pandemic, it's all Trumpdemic now. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation tumbled 9.5 points to 116.8.
LBN thread (see graph in reply #2) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587258

* Durable goods orders - I haven't looked at yet

* Industrial production and capacity utilization - I haven't looked at yet


FRIDAY DECEMBER 19

* Existing home sales (non-govt) - I haven't looked at yet

* Consumer Sentiment final (non-govt) - here's an article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-shows-substantial-decline-from-last-year-amid-higher-prices-tough-job-market-160618145.html

THUR DECEMBER 18:

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Dec 13 (it was 236,000 for the week ending Dec 6) - In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. (govt)

* Consumer price index for November (govt) (note: the one for October was cancelled. The November one was originally scheduled for December 10 before the Fed's rate-setting meeting, but alas was delayed until 8 days after the meeting) - result: 2.7% year-over-year, a cooling from the 3.0% year-over-year reported in the September report, and a 0.2% increase over the last 2 months. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143584377


TUE DECEMBER 16:

* The long-delayed big Jobs report (featuring the headline non-farm payroll jobs and unemployment rate) (govt). Expected: +50,000 jobs in November and 4.5% unemployment rate. Actual: -105,000 in October and +64,000 in November for a net drop of jobs over these 2 months of 41,000. Nonfarm payroll jobs averaged only 17k/month over the last 7 months and 22k over the last 3 months. These are seasonally adjusted numbers. The raw numbers (i.e. not seasonally adjusted numbers) are 204k/month and 416k/month respectively. And the unemployment rate is 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215

There was not, and never will be a separate October jobs report. The payroll stuff Establishment survey was taken and will be included in the November report (as it was in the Decmber 16 report). The household survey that produces the unemployment rate was not done in October, and so the October unemployment rate will be a blank in the records forever.

More details: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215#post19

The LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215 .

Please disregard all the comments about "Christmas hires" and "seasonal hires" - those have been adjusted for.

TUE DECEMBER 16 Continued:

There's another jobs report that came out -- the ADP report on PRIVATE sector payrolls:
16,250 private jobs/week for 4 weeks ending 11/29/25 (so roughly +65,000 private sector jobs in the month of November)
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583228
Again, ignore the comment about seasonal hiring. The ADP reports seasonally adjusted numbers
Also realize that The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce. They have to estimate the other 80%.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3506135

The retail sales report that came out December 16: Sept: +0.1% and October: +0.0%. Those are nominal dollar increases. After adjusting for inflation, which was 0.3% month-over-month in September, and an unknown amount in October, those are declines of real spending of 0.2% and 0.3%, assuming that October also comes in at 0.3% month-over-month inflation. Yes, they are seasonally adjusted.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/retail-sales-flat-in-october-as-uncertainty-tempers-consumer-spending/ar-AA1SsP9b

S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI's (non-govt) - I haven't looked at this yet

=================================================================

General Comments

Please don't believe the fabrication that Fed Chair Powell said, or implied, that the jobs numbers are "fudged". He did not. The person posting that claim included no excerpt that one can read to judge what exactly he said, and that was deliberate. When confronted, that person expressed some other reasons (again without supporting information) for believing the numbers are fudged. That may be so, But that does not excuse very deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives about what Powell said.


Please don't believe reports that 1 million or 1.1 million jobs were lost in 2025 so far, implying these are net job losses (jobs lost minus jobs gained). This is based on Challenger, Gray, and Christmas that reported 1,170,821 job cuts were ANNOUNCED. And they are just layoff announcements, and they are not net of hiring announcements or any actual hiring. As the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) shows, there are a lot of layoffs (and voluntary leavings of jobs) and a lot of hiring every month. The excuse that media misreports the Challenger report too is not an excuse for deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives, after being presented with the information about what the Challenger etc. report actually said.

The media mis-reports a lot of things like Hillary's email and Hunter Biden's laptop with cherry-picked misleading factoids, but that is never an excuse for echoing those reports here after being made aware of the factual record.


There's another myth that's spreading: that the new head of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is a Trump appointee, E.J. Antoni. However, his nomination was withdrawn due to too many controversies.

The current head is Acting Commissioner, William J. Wiatrowski, who has served in this role twice previously, the first time from January 2017 to March 2019, and the second time from March 2023 to January 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics


Global Stocks Trounce the S&P 500 in Trump’s Chaotic First Year, Bloomberg, 1/20/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-stocks-trounce-p-500-131530108.html
URL above no longer works, this one does but only for a page or so of the article, then it hits "Story Continued" button that does nothing when clicked: https://web.archive.org/web/20260120223645/https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-stocks-trounce-p-500-131530108.html

The S&P 500 gained 15.7% in Trump's first year, according to a table in the article, comparing the first year of all presidential terms since (and including) FDR.

US stocks are off to their worst start versus the global market since 1995, Yahoo Finance, 2/18/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-are-off-to-their-worst-start-versus-the-global-market-since-1995-110019152.html

*THERE's an iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) VERSUS S&P 500 - where one can set 1 D, 5D, 1M, 6M, YTD (9.7% v. 0.8%), 1Y (31.7% vs. 12.9%), 5Y (30.0% v. 76.7%), ALL (starting about 4/2008: 35% vs. 393%)
(ACWI stands for All Country World Index). One can see that the S&P 500 vastly outperformed the rest of the world in the past 5 years and the past 18 years, but since late 2024, the rest of the world has outperformed the S&P 500.