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progree

(12,747 posts)
Tue Mar 4, 2025, 11:04 AM Mar 2025

S&P 500 closed Friday 1/9 at 6966 up 0.6% to new ATH # Lots of job reports - ADP, BLS, JOLTS, unemployment claims

This discussion thread is pinned.

Last edited Sat Jan 10, 2026, 10:19 PM - Edit history (233)

Saturday 10:00 PM ET - I think I'm done with this Friday report -- a huge amount of economic reports since I posted last Tuesday. Since the version of this that was here Saturday 7:00 AM, I've just added some words on the JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report, and I completed the summary of the Stock Market Today Yahoo Finance article.

Wednesday:

# ADP private payroll employment, +41,000 PRIVATE payroll jobs (by the way, in comparison the BLS jobs report that came out Friday 1/9, with the headline +50,000 jobs number, had a PRIVATE payroll jobs increase of +37,000, a very unusally close match to the ADP number).
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143594195
https://adpemploymentreport.com/

# ISM Services,

# JOLTS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, - kinda bad report. lowest job openings in over a year for one thing. The number of job openings fell in November, while the hiring rate was a paltry 3.2%. There were 1.1 unemployed people for every available job, the highest level since early 2021. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/layoff-plans-for-december-hit-lowest-monthly-level-since-2024-in-positive-sign-challenger-says-131808125.html (the article is almost all about the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas report, but the above blurb is in reference to the JOLTS report)

Thursday

# Unemployment insurance claims: 208,000, an 8,000 increase over last week

# Q3 Productivity - I haven't looked at it, but from a headline I saw, it's a big jump thanks to the big +4.3% Q3 GDP increase (annualized rate) reported in December,

Friday

# Big BLS jobs report : +50,000 non-farm payroll jobs, unemployment rate ticked down from 4.5% to 4.4%. A LOT more to this story, for example, thanks to downward revisions of October and November, there are actually 26k fewer non-farm payroll jobs than were reported in the previous (December 10) report. AND , didya know, in December actual (meaning not-seasonally adjusted) jobs fell by 192,000, but seasonal adjustment turned that to a positive 50,000? Could YOU use a seasonal adjustment like that? AND, President literal asswipe posted several jobs numbers 12 hours before the 8:30 AM ET release time (did you know that they show the president and the entire Council of Economic Advisers the jobs report the evening before it is released?). AND there is probably a couple other things to say, I'll have to review the thread...
the LBN thread link, full of information, is https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143595598

# Consumer Sentiment - a slight improvement but graph still looks awful
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
GRAPH: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf

=================================================
From the Department of Excuses The big jobs report today pretty much ate up all my time Friday, and there were other things I had to attend to on top of that. But thought I should give you a quickie look

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500 jump to records, Nasdaq surges as stocks end 2026's first week with big gains, Yahoo Finance, 1/9/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-jump-to-records-nasdaq-surges-as-stocks-end-2026s-first-week-with-big-gains-210029649.html

US stocks rose to all-time highs on Friday as investors assessed the December jobs report to end a jam-packed first full trading week of 2026.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 0.6%, notching a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose around 0.5% to also post an all-time high close. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) jumped 0.8%, marking a winning week for all three major averages. ((to be clear, the NASDAQ didn't set a new record -progree))

The nonfarm payrolls report, which returned to its normal cadence following disruptions from the government shutdown, showed the US added 50,000 jobs in December. Payroll growth fell short of economists' expectations of about 70,000 positions added, sealing bets that the Federal Reserve will stand pat on interest rates in less than three weeks. ((This doesn't quite make sense -- if the jobs report was seen as being really weak, that would make a rate cut more likely. So apparently Yahoo Finance thinks the Fed will see this report as being good enough to leave rates unchanged. Though the number of jobs added was a little below expectations, the unemployment rate ticked down, see next paragraph, which is a positive -progree))

The unemployment rate declined to 4.4%, from 4.6% in November, carrying 2025's labor market theme of a “no-hire, no-fire” economy through the end of the year. ((The November unemployment rate was reported as 4.6% in the report that came out December 16. But today's report revised November's unemployment rate down a notch to 4.5%. And December came in at 4.4% -progree.))

Wall Street was also on alert for a tariffs ruling from the Supreme Court, which could carry huge implications for US economic strategy if the levies are found to be unlawful. Friday came and went without a decision. The court indicated its next opinion day would come Wednesday, Jan. 14.

Meanwhile, investors are weighing the latest developments in the US moves on Venezuela. Trump said he has canceled a second wave of attacks in the country, citing cooperation over US plans to rebuild its crumbling energy infrastructure. The White House has called a meeting with global oil majors on Friday to discuss the fate of Venezuela's huge reserves.


----- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE -----

# In meeting with oil execs, Trump says companies will spend 'at least' $100B to rebuild Venezuelan oil industry

# March rate cut still at play: BNP Paribas -- the gist of the article is that a rate cut is less likely in January and in March, with today's jobs report reduction of the unemployment rate from 4.5% in November to 4.4% in December. Last month, the unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.6%, but that was revised down in today's report, which incorporates the annual seasonal re-adjustments to Household Survey numbers.

# Gold, silver rise for the week - gold is up more than 4% over the past five days, and silver has surged roughly 12%.

# Drop in unemployment rate expected to keep Fed on track for rate-cutting pause

# Consumer sentiment hits highest level since September - Progree says it's a trivial uptick if you look at the graph - https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chicsr.pdf
The report from the source: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ . It's down 25% below last year's level.

# Meta seals nuclear power deals to fuel AI push, lifting Oklo and Vistra shares

# Productivity can be another name for a rough job market
Worker productivity grew at its fastest clip in two years as businesses spent heavily on AI and pulled back on hiring. It took less labor to pump up GDP, generating growth without much more elbow grease or keyboard tapping from American workers.

The Labor Department found the hourly output per worker accelerated ‌at a 4.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, matching levels not seen since 2023.


# There's also some chips and AI stories that came out before noon, and some of that may change before the close,so I didn't include in the above

The below, for now, is still exactly the way it was posted Tuesday (exception: the 3 self-updating graphs at the bottom are newer)

The below, for now, is still exactly the way it was posted Tuesday (exception: the 3 self-updating graphs at the bottom are newer)

In the future I will only be doing these twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.

10 Year TREASURY YIELD 4.18% on 1/06 - up 0.01 from yesterday, up 0.06 from Tuesday 12/30, It was 4.19% on Friday 12/12 (It local-bottomed out at 3.95% 10/22/25, its lowest point since April.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/

Bitcoin: $93,134 @ 456p ET (almost matching it's end-of-2024 closing level) It was $90,084 last Friday. It was $87,453 Friday 12/26, It has wiped out all its gains for 2025 -- it ended 2024 at $93,429. It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (actually down 26% from that level) (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7) https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/

Next Fed rate decision: January 28
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves)
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/

How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com

If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com

Stock market today: Dow crosses 49,000, S&P 500 jumps to new high in record-setting start to year, Yahoo Finance, 1/6/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-49000-sp-500-jumps-to-new-high-in-record-setting-start-to-year-194907643.html

US stocks rose to fresh records on Tuesday as investors continued to weigh US moves on Venezuela and braced for a flurry of fresh data this week to shed light on the health of the economy.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.6%, closing at a record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also rose 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed 1% to close above 49,000 for the first time as the blue-chip index notched a back-to-back record.

Investors assessed Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD's (AMD) competing AI roadmaps, laid out at CES in Las Vegas. CEO Jensen Huang launched Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin AI superchip platform, followed by AMD CEO Lisa Su's first look at its rival Helios system. Eyes were also on new PC chips from Intel (INTC) and Qualcomm (QCOM), with updates from other tech stalwarts expected as the marquee tech event continues this week.

. . . On Tuesday, the final reading of S&P Global's Services PMI for the month of December showed the US services sector growing at its slowest pace in eight months. ((more below -progree))

. . . [On Friday, the big jobs report comes out -- the one with nonfarm payroll jobs and the unemployment rate]

In commodities, copper (HG=F) continued to surge after breaking above $13,000 a ton for the first time, hitting a fresh record as worries about potential Trump tariffs spur stockpiles in the US, leaving the rest of the world short.


----- SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE -----

3 semiconductor stocks to play the AI supercycle, according to analysts Inbox
Yahoo Finance's Francisco Velasquez reports:

The AI trade has hit a new stage: The spotlight is shifting from the chips that process data to the hardware required to store it.

"Right now, we are very early in the memory cycle," DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria told Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid. "The progress that we've made in AI models has made it so memory is the next frontier. We need a lot more memory in the chips, in the installations, in the servers, in the data center."

"Companies like Micron, SK Hynix and the part of Samsung that does memory are now becoming increasingly important," he added.


Bitcoin and broader crypto markets 'have bottomed,' Bernstein analysts say (article)

Venezuela says it has the world's largest reserves of crude oil. Making it viable is a whole other problem. (article)

Why the stock market is 'shrugging off' Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's capture (article)

S&P US Services PMI shows sector grew at slowest pace in 8 months in December (article)
Fresh economic data on Tuesday showed the US services sector — which employs the majority of Americans — growing at its slowest pace in eight months during December.

S&P Global's US Services PMI came in at 52.5 in December, below the preliminary reading of 52.9 earlier that month, which was expected to remain unchanged by economists tracked by Bloomberg.

The initial Services PMI reading in mid-December had already shown the index hitting a six-month low, and Tuesday's reading marked a further slowdown. The index reflects changes in businesses' costs, employment, and demand. A reading above 50 signals expansion in the services sector, while one below that figure indicates contraction.

"Confidence has been dampened principally by uncertainty over government policy and the broader economic outlook, with tariffs and affordability featuring as common threads throughout companies’ more cautious views on their prospects," wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.


Oklo stock rises another 6% on Energy Department [uranium] enrichment investment [article]
Oklo (OKLO) stock extended its nearly 15% gain from Monday, rising another 6% in premarket trading, after the US Department of Energy announced a $2.7 billion investment to strengthen domestic uranium enrichment over the next 10 years.


How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 1/6/2026, AP, 1/6/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-us-stock-indexes-fared-212527676.html
How the 4 major market averages (S&P 500, DOW, NASDAQ, Russell 2000 (small caps) fared for today, for the week (since last Friday), and for the year (since December 31), ,


----- FROM MONDAY JANUARY 5 -------

US Factory Malaise Continues as Gauge Drops to One-Year Low, Bloomberg 1/5/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-malaise-continues-gauge-152835595.html

(Bloomberg) -- US manufacturing activity shrank in December by the most since 2024, capping a rough year for American factories.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index edged down to 47.9 from 48.2, according to data released Monday. The measure has been below 50, which indicates contraction, for 10 straight months.

The decline in the measure reflected producers drawing down their raw materials inventories at the fastest rate since October 2024. That indicates many firms are relying on existing stockpiles to satisfy tepid demand.

Plus, materials costs remain elevated. The ISM prices-paid index, which held at 58.5 last month, is 6 points higher than it was at the end of 2024.

New orders contracted for a fourth month and export bookings remained weak, based on the ISM data. Headcount shrank for an eleventh straight month, albeit at a slower pace, amid modest production growth.

((underlining mine. Much more at link -progree))



Scroll down to see earlier in the day reports

And scroll down to the bottom of this post to look at the amazing Oil price graph

See Reply #1 to this thread for reports prior to December 23

========
Recent and Coming Up, Reports (I'm also keeping the Dec 23 - Dec 31 ones for now
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for



TUESDAY DECEMBER 23

* GDP Q3 first estimate (delayed report, normally released late September). (govt) -- it came in at a 4.3% annualized rate, well above the 3.3% rate economists were expecting. Various factors cited in media: an acceleration of EV purchases prior to the Sept 30 expiration of tax credits. A lot of spending by big tech companies on AI (investment spending boosts the GDP number). A substantial rise in exports (up 8.8% annualized rate) and a small drop in imports -- both these boost the GDP number, Federal spending also played a sizable role, a reflection of the large uptick in defense spending as well as buyouts for federal workers. Also, it reflects the "K-shaped" economy -- higher-income people flush with growing stock market wealth increased their spending, while lesser-income people struggled with higher prices and a weakening job market.
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587157 ## From the source: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2025-initial-estimate-and-corporate-profits

* Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, non-govt) - result: the 5th straight month of decline. The worst since April, and at about the same level as seen in the 2020 pandemic year. Except there is no microbe-driven pandemic, it's all Trumpdemic now. Consumers’ assessments of their current economic situation tumbled 9.5 points to 116.8.
LBN thread (see graph in reply #2) https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143587258

* Durable goods orders - I haven't looked at yet

* Industrial production and capacity utilization - I haven't looked at yet

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 24

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims - 224,000 was reported December 18. 214,000 was reported today, December 24, a drop of 10,000 . But continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.92 million (govt)

NO REPORTS DECEMBER 25 NOR DECEMBER 26

MONDAY DECEMBER 29

* Pending home sales - I saw a headline: up 3.35% from November and up 2.6% year-over-year (non-govt, National Association of Realtors)

TUESDAY DECEMBER 30

* Case-Shiller home prices index - I saw a headline: home prices up for a 3rd straight month, and up 1.4% since October 2024

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims, 199,000. It was 214,000 in last week's report
https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20251646.pdf

FRIDAY, JANUARY 2

* S&P Manufacturing - I haven't seen the report

MONDAY, JANUARY 5

* ISM Manufacturing -- US Factory Malaise Continues as Gauge Drops to One-Year Low, Bloomberg 1/5/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-factory-malaise-continues-gauge-152835595.html
head count shrinks for 11th straight month. (weren't tariffs supposed to fix that?)

TUESDAY, JANUARY 6

* S&P Services PMI -- shows sector grew at slowest pace in 8 months in December
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-crosses-49000-sp-500-jumps-to-new-high-in-record-setting-start-to-year-194907643.html
(and scroll down that page)

Most of the Wednesday thru Friday reports listed below are summarized at the top of this article, for now. Yeah, yeah, I should put those summaries here, and will when I do Tuesday Jan 13's update

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 7

* ADP private payroll employment (they have payroll data for about 20% of the private work force, and somehow they estimate the other 80%)

* ISM Services

* JOLTS Job OPenings and Labor Turnover Survey (Labor Department)

* Factory orders

THURSDAY, JANUARY 8

* Unemployment insurance claims

* Productivity

FRIDAY, JANUARY 9

* Big BLS jobs report - payroll employment, Unemployment rate,

* Housing Starts

* Consumer Sentiment

# In concise form for January 2 - January 9: Fri(2): S&P Manufacturing Mon(5): ISM Manufacturing, Tue(6): S&P Services PMI, Wed(7) ADP private payroll employment, ISM Services, JOLTS Job OPenings and Labor Turnover Survey, Factory orders, # Thu(8) Unemployment insurance claims, Productivity, # Fri(9) Big BLS jobs report - payroll employment, Unemployment rate, , Housing Starts, Consumer Sentiment,

Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm

BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule



=============================================
The S&P 500 closed Tuesday January 6 at 6945, up 0.6% for the day,
and up 20.1% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 15.8% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 18.1% since the December 31, 2024 close
and up 1.5% Year To Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)

S&P 500
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00

# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/

Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/

========================================================

I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).

The Dow closed Monday at 48,977, and it closed Tuesday at 49,462, a rise of 1.0% (485 points) for the day

https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/

DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544

DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)



I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:

Crude Oil


US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)


If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
🚨 ❤️ 😬! 😱 < - - emoticon library for future uses
19 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
S&P 500 closed Friday 1/9 at 6966 up 0.6% to new ATH # Lots of job reports - ADP, BLS, JOLTS, unemployment claims (Original Post) progree Mar 2025 OP
Some prior reports progree Mar 2025 #1
Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500) progree Mar 2025 #2
Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close progree Mar 2025 #3
Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close progree Mar 2025 #4
Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory progree Mar 2025 #5
S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day progree Mar 2025 #6
Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high progree Mar 2025 #7
Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day progree Mar 2025 #8
Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day progree Mar 2025 #9
Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day progree Mar 2025 #10
S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH progree Mar 2025 #11
S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH progree Apr 2025 #12
We're nearing the top. Arizona78 Jul 2025 #13
Krugman Arizona78 Jul 2025 #14
Thanks for your updates in this thread, progree. Hugin Nov 6 #15
And thanks, I appreciate that 😊 And thanks for pinning /nt progree Nov 6 #16
I'm not seeing much financial ink out there on the dump... Hugin Nov 14 #17
Me neither, until it broke the 20% down threshold to becoming a bear market progree Nov 15 #18
"rarity doesn't guarantee high value"... Hugin Nov 15 #19

progree

(12,747 posts)
1. Some prior reports
Tue Mar 4, 2025, 04:11 PM
Mar 2025

Last edited Fri Jan 2, 2026, 08:09 PM - Edit history (3)

Most Recent First (reverse chronological order)

FRIDAY DECEMBER 19

* Existing home sales (non-govt) - I haven't looked at yet

* Consumer Sentiment final (non-govt) - here's an article:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/consumer-sentiment-shows-substantial-decline-from-last-year-amid-higher-prices-tough-job-market-160618145.html

THUR DECEMBER 18:

* Weekly unemployment insurance claims for the week ending Dec 13 (it was 236,000 for the week ending Dec 6) - In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. (govt)

* Consumer price index for November (govt) (note: the one for October was cancelled. The November one was originally scheduled for December 10 before the Fed's rate-setting meeting, but alas was delayed until 8 days after the meeting) - result: 2.7% year-over-year, a cooling from the 3.0% year-over-year reported in the September report, and a 0.2% increase over the last 2 months. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143584377


TUE DECEMBER 16:

* The long-delayed big Jobs report (featuring the headline non-farm payroll jobs and unemployment rate) (govt). Expected: +50,000 jobs in November and 4.5% unemployment rate. Actual: -105,000 in October and +64,000 in November for a net drop of jobs over these 2 months of 41,000. Nonfarm payroll jobs averaged only 17k/month over the last 7 months and 22k over the last 3 months. These are seasonally adjusted numbers. The raw numbers (i.e. not seasonally adjusted numbers) are 204k/month and 416k/month respectively. And the unemployment rate is 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September. LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215

There was not, and never will be a separate October jobs report. The payroll stuff Establishment survey was taken and will be included in the November report (as it was in the Decmber 16 report). The household survey that produces the unemployment rate was not done in October, and so the October unemployment rate will be a blank in the records forever.

More details: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215#post19

The LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583215 .

Please disregard all the comments about "Christmas hires" and "seasonal hires" - those have been adjusted for.

TUE DECEMBER 16 Continued:

There's another jobs report that came out -- the ADP report on PRIVATE sector payrolls:
16,250 private jobs/week for 4 weeks ending 11/29/25 (so roughly +65,000 private sector jobs in the month of November)
LBN thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143583228
Again, ignore the comment about seasonal hiring. The ADP reports seasonally adjusted numbers
Also realize that The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce. They have to estimate the other 80%.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3506135

The retail sales report that came out December 16: Sept: +0.1% and October: +0.0%. Those are nominal dollar increases. After adjusting for inflation, which was 0.3% month-over-month in September, and an unknown amount in October, those are declines of real spending of 0.2% and 0.3%, assuming that October also comes in at 0.3% month-over-month inflation. Yes, they are seasonally adjusted.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/retail-sales-flat-in-october-as-uncertainty-tempers-consumer-spending/ar-AA1SsP9b

S&P flash U.S. services and manufacturing PMI's (non-govt) - I haven't looked at this yet

=================================================================

General Comments

Please don't believe the fabrication that Fed Chair Powell said, or implied, that the jobs numbers are "fudged". He did not. The person posting that claim included no excerpt that one can read to judge what exactly he said, and that was deliberate. When confronted, that person expressed some other reasons (again without supporting information) for believing the numbers are fudged. That may be so, But that does not excuse very deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives about what Powell said.


Please don't believe reports that 1 million or 1.1 million jobs were lost in 2025 so far, implying these are net job losses (jobs lost minus jobs gained). This is based on Challenger, Gray, and Christmas that reported 1,170,821 job cuts were ANNOUNCED. And they are just layoff announcements, and they are not net of hiring announcements or any actual hiring. As the monthly JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) shows, there are a lot of layoffs (and voluntary leavings of jobs) and a lot of hiring every month. The excuse that media misreports the Challenger report too is not an excuse for deliberately misleading one's fellow progressives, after being presented with the information about what the Challenger etc. report actually said.

The media mis-reports a lot of things like Hillary's email and Hunter Biden's laptop with cherry-picked misleading factoids, but that is never an excuse for echoing those reports here after being made aware of the factual record.


There's another myth that's spreading: that the new head of the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) is a Trump appointee, E.J. Antoni. However, his nomination was withdrawn due to too many controversies.

The current head is Acting Commissioner, William J. Wiatrowski, who has served in this role twice previously, the first time from January 2017 to March 2019, and the second time from March 2023 to January 2024
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics

progree

(12,747 posts)
2. Kicking: update for Thurs. March 6 close. The "Trump Trade" is back underwater after losing 1.8% for the day (S&P 500)
Thu Mar 6, 2025, 04:44 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for the statistics.

progree

(12,747 posts)
3. Kicking: Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5770, up 0.5% for the day but still below the election day close
Fri Mar 7, 2025, 05:35 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for details

progree

(12,747 posts)
4. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday 3/10 at 5615, down 2.7% for the day and 2.9% below the election day close
Mon Mar 10, 2025, 03:20 PM
Mar 2025

see OP for details.

progree

(12,747 posts)
5. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/11 at 5572, down 0.8% for the day, briefly fell into correction territory
Tue Mar 11, 2025, 03:22 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,747 posts)
6. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 3/12 at 5599, up 0.5% for the day, but down 3.2% since election day
Wed Mar 12, 2025, 04:20 PM
Mar 2025

See OP for details, and a graph of the DOW.

progree

(12,747 posts)
7. Update: S&P 500 closed Thursday at 5522, down 1.4% for the day, and MORE THAN 10% down from the all-time high
Thu Mar 13, 2025, 03:19 PM
Mar 2025

Details in the OP.

progree

(12,747 posts)
8. Update: S&P 500 closed Friday at 5639, up 2.1% for the day, and down 2.5% since election day
Fri Mar 14, 2025, 03:23 PM
Mar 2025

Details in the OP.

progree

(12,747 posts)
9. Update: S&P 500 closed Monday at 5675, up 0.6% for the day, and down 1.9% since election day
Mon Mar 17, 2025, 04:48 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,747 posts)
10. Update: S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 5615, down 1.1% for the day, and down 2.9% since election day
Tue Mar 18, 2025, 03:16 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP.

progree

(12,747 posts)
11. S&P 500 closed Tuesday 3/25 at 5777, up 0.2% for the day, down 0.1% since election day, down 6.0% from ATH
Tue Mar 25, 2025, 09:03 PM
Mar 2025

Details in OP. ATH is All Time High. I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. It looks like the Trump slump since election day is about at an end, only 0.1% down since election day, and with 3 straight market days of gains. Since inauguration day, its down 3.7%.

progree

(12,747 posts)
12. S&P 500 closed Wednesday 4/02 at 5671, up 0.7% for the day, down 1.9% since election day, down 7.7% from ATH
Wed Apr 2, 2025, 03:46 PM
Apr 2025

ATH is All Time High. Details in OP including more comparisons like down 5.4% since pre-inauguration day, and down 3.6% year-to-date.

I don't kick this every market day, but it's been several days, and it's gotten well down on the listings, so I decided to kick it. Note this closing is moments before the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs, so it's a good benchmark to compare to what follows in the next few days.

Arizona78

(8 posts)
13. We're nearing the top.
Fri Jul 4, 2025, 02:09 AM
Jul 2025

Trump’s bill could soon trigger a repo market crisis and push America and much of the world—toward bankruptcy. Something massive is on the horizon. Get ready.

Arizona78

(8 posts)
14. Krugman
Fri Jul 4, 2025, 02:21 AM
Jul 2025

Paul Krugman is deeply concerned about the uncontrolled rise in debt, which could sharply push up interest rates leading to bankruptcy.

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/trumps-big-beautiful-debt-bomb

Hugin

(37,448 posts)
17. I'm not seeing much financial ink out there on the dump...
Fri Nov 14, 2025, 10:57 AM
Nov 14

Crypto has taken over the last week or so. BTC $120K to ~ $97K.

progree

(12,747 posts)
18. Me neither, until it broke the 20% down threshold to becoming a bear market
Sat Nov 15, 2025, 01:13 AM
Nov 15

I'm seeing that proclaimed in a couple of articles in the yahoo.finance.com page today.

It's all-time high in October was over $126,000. Right now as I post this, it's 96,277, down 23.6%

I've been reporting Bitcoin near the top of my OP each time I update anything, along with the 10-year Treasury yield. I'm not sure why, but a lot of people are interested in it. Actually, it's kind of against my "religion", given the amount of electricity and water that bitcoin "miners" consume. I read recently that just ONE Bitcoin transaction uses as much electricity as does the average U.S. household over 38 days (more than a month!)

I might buy the Bitcoin evangelists' argument that bitcoin's high value (still) is that they keep the bitcoin supply very limited. But there are all kinds of new cryptocurrencies being created and eventually the amount of money available from people willing to support this ever-expanding ocean of speculative crypto-investments will reach a peak. (And besides, rarity doesn't guarantee high value).

Hugin

(37,448 posts)
19. "rarity doesn't guarantee high value"...
Sat Nov 15, 2025, 06:21 AM
Nov 15

If I had a nickel for every time I’d said that.

I am far from liking anything about crypto. I try to avoid things that are easy to buy and difficult to sell. I do monitor it, tho. Due to its position in the techbro’s DOW -> AI -> Crypto financial ouroboros.

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