S&P 500 closed Friday 3/20 at 6506, down 1.5% #TREAS Yield # Hot PPI report (Wedn) Last 3 months average 6.6% (ann'd) [View all]
Last edited Sat Mar 21, 2026, 12:45 AM - Edit history (261)
and new home sales plunge a seasonally adjusted 17.6% from last month.
Producer Prices increased over the last 3 months at an annualized rate of 6.6%.
I will be doing these only twice a week: Tuesday and Friday, unless it's really interesting.
Unfortunately, they will be much trimmed versions until at least late March (tax season). They won't include the "SCROLLING DOWN THE PAGE" sections. I will still maintain the Reports and Calendar section and the "Stock Market Today" Yahoo Finance narratives.
10Y Treasury, in chronological order: It local-bottomed out at 3.95% Oct 22, 2025, its lowest point since April 2025. . 4.19% on Dec 2, 2025, , 4.27% on Feb 3, 2026, , 4.06% on March 3, , 4.12% on March 5, , 4.28% on March 13, and 4.39% on Friday March 20 (the hot wholesale prices PPI report might be the reason for the latest uptick)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ETNX/
10 Year Treasury price: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZN%3DF/
Bitcoin, In chronological order: It was $95,401 Jan 16, , $84,009 on Jan 30, , $75,512 on Feb 3, , $65,564 on Feb 27, , $71,357 on March 13 , , $74,580 March 17 $70,228 March 20 @ 521p ET ##### It's in bear market territory, down more than 20% from it's $126,000+ all-time high in October (20% down from $126,000 is $100,800) ACTUALLY, it's down 44% from $126,000 (Cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Next Fed rate decision: April 29 (last was March 18)
CME FedWatch tool (probabilities of various Fed interest rate moves) 3/20: 12% chance of a rate HIKE) and ZERO % chance of a rate cut
. . . https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The S&P 500 closed Friday March 20 at 6506, down 1.5% for the day,
and up 12.5% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 8.5% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 10.6% since the December 31, 2024 close
and down 5.0% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)
and down 6.8% from its all-time high
and down 3.1% from Tuesday 3/17
The Dow closed Thursday at 46,021, and it closed Friday at 45,577, a drop of 1.0% (444 points) for the day
Market news of the day: https://finance.yahoo.com/
How to find the latest Yahoo Finance "stock market today" report if it's not at the finance.yahoo page (note that the headline displayed there does not include the "Stock Market Today" words, but the article itself does): click on
https://www.google.com/search?q=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com&oq=%22stock+market+today%22+site%3Afinance.yahoo.com
If the link doesn't work for you,
Google: "stock market today" site:finance.yahoo.com
First I will cover Wednesday and Thursday, then on to Friday 3/20
Wednesday March 18
S&P 500: -1.36%, , DOW: -1.63% (768 points), , NASDAQ: -1.46%,
10Y TREASURY: 4.26% +0.05 , , Bitcoin: $71,370 @ 515p ET ,
Stock market today: Dow sinks 750 points, S&P 500, Nasdaq slide after Fed decision as Powell touts inflation worries, Yahoo Finance, 3/18/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sinks-750-points-sp-500-nasdaq-slide-after-fed-decision-as-powell-touts-inflation-worries-200050703.html?pl2=everyday-hero_lead
I'm not going to bother with the excerpt today (taxes fortnight)
--- SCROLLING DOWN THE ABOVE YAHOO FINANCE PAGE, WEDNESDAY, March 18 -----
I won't be doing this section until late March, sorry. I think it's a very valuable addition to this page, but it also takes a lot of time to put together. I urge people to scroll down the page for the short valuable summaries of numerous articles.
Thursday March 19
S&P 500: -0.27%, , DOW: -0.44% (204 points), , NASDAQ: -0.28%,
10Y TREASURY: 4.28% +0.02 , , Bitcoin: $70,514 @ 3/20 215a ET,
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq recover from steep losses as oil's surge eases, Yahoo Finance, 3/19/26
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-recover-from-steep-losses-as-oils-surge-eases-200040220.html
I'm not going to bother with the excerpt today (taxes fortnight)
--- SCROLLING DOWN THE ABOVE YAHOO FINANCE PAGE, THURSDAY, March 19 -----
I won't be doing this section until late March, sorry. I think it's a very valuable addition to this page, but it also takes a lot of time to put together. I urge people to scroll down the page for the short valuable summaries of numerous articles.
FRIDAY MARCH 20
S&P 500: -1.51%, , DOW: -0.96% (444 points), , NASDAQ: --2.01%, ,
10Y Treasury: 4.39% +0.11 (YIKES) , , Bitcoin: $70,228 @ 521p ET , WTI OIL: $98.09 +2.66%
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-sell-off-to-end-another-brutal-week-as-iran-war-rages-200057954.html
((in the actual Yahoo Finance version that this is scraped from, there are many links not shown in my excerpt below -progree))
US stock losses accelerated on Friday, while oil prices remained high, as investors weighed the possibility that the US might try to seize a key Iranian energy terminal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz.
Stocks are retreating as investors assess an Axios report that the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island, vital to Iran's oil exports. The risky operation would aim to put pressure on Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to tanker shipping.
Oil prices whipsawed as markets remained on edge amid headlines about the fast-moving Middle East conflict. On Friday, Iran pressed ahead with attacks on Persian Gulf neighbors as analysts warned existing damage would keep oil prices elevated. Brent (BZ=F) futures traded near $105 a barrel after swinging between gains and losses, while West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) futures hovered at around $97.
The major US stock gauges declined for the fourth straight week, with the Dow and Nasdaq Composite both nearing correction territory ((which is 10% down from an all-time-high. The other index, the S&P 500, is down 6.8% from its all-time high, which is "pull-back" territory. Pullbacks begin at 5% down --progree))
--- SCROLLING DOWN THE ABOVE YAHOO FINANCE PAGE, FRIDAY, March 20 -----
Energy on pace to close out week with gains of 3% (talking about energy stocks, specifically XLE ETF)
Nasdaq, Dow near correction territory 3:12 PM EDT, 48 minutes below the close
The NASDAQ's all-time closing high was 23,857 reached on January 28
The DOW's all-time closing high was 50,188 reached on February 10
Gold prices slump, on track for third week of losses is down more than 9% this week, its worst week since 1983
Shutdown-induced travel problems may get even worse next week
'Fed's balancing act is getting trickier': Wall Street strategists reassess central bank's rate cut path
Financial stocks on pace for worst first quarter since 2020 as private credit cracks flash 'yellow warning' (this article is an hour before the open)
The robotaxi companies have wildly different problems, but the same goal
Wall Street faces a $5.7 trillion triple-witching jolt on Friday
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REPORTS AND CALENDAR
Recent and Coming Up, Reports
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
See Reply #1 to this thread for last week's reports and older reports.
The government reports are all seasonally adjusted, as are most, if not all, of the non-government reports the media covers, so please don't post comments about how the numbers look good (or not as bad as expected) only because of Christmas season hires or Christmas shopping. Or that it's warming up and people are beginning spring shopping already -- seasonal factors like that have been adjusted for
THIS WEEK'S REPORTS/CALENDAR (Mar 16-20) FOLLOWED BY NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR (Mar 23-27)
LAST WEEK'S REPORTS (MAR 09-13)
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These are all in Reply #1 in reverse chronological order. In a break from past practice, I am no longer putting last week's reports in this OP.
THIS WEEK'S REPORTS (MAR 16-20)
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https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
MONDAY MARCH 16 (REPORTS)
# Empire State manufacturing survey March
In February, it was 7.1. In March: -0.2 (+4.1% was expected, per MarketWatch calendar)
# Industrial production, February
In January, it was +0.7%. In February, it was +0.2%
US manufacturing output rises marginally in February, Reuters, 3/16/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-manufacturing-output-rises-marginally-in-february/ar-AA1YJDvt
TUESDAY MARCH 17 (REPORTS)
# Pending home sales February
In January, it was -0.8%. In February, it was +1.8%
Sounds good, thanks to lower mortgage rates. But remember the attack on Iran was February 28, and mortgage rates started rising after that. The mortgage rate was 5.98% on February 12, and it's 6.11% on March 12, the latest.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-pending-home-sales-report-shows-1-8-increase-in-february
0.8% decrease year over year
# Home builder confidence index, March
WEDNESDAY MARCH 18 (REPORTS)
Producer price index February (It was hot 0.5% month-over-month growth in January)
# LBN Thread: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143634448
# BLS SOURCE: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
# PPI http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
# PPI ex food, energy, and trade services http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
# PPI ex food & energy http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49104
# Note that the BLS never uses the term "core" anywhere in the news release ppi.nr0.htm
# See also Table 1 in ppi.nr0.htm: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.t01.htm
Trade Services month-over-month percentage increases in the last 5 months were:
. . . -0.9% -0.5% +1.9% +2.2% +0.4%.
12 months: +5.2%
I annualize everything for comparisons to each other and to the 2% Federal Reserve inflation goal
One month increase (month-over-month) (annualized)
. REGULAR CORE MONTH
PPI 8.5% 6.5% FEB (PPI = wholesale prices)
CPI 3.2% 2.6% FEB
PCE 3.3% 4.4% JAN
GOAL 2.0% 2.0%
Average increase over last 3 months (annualized):
. REGULAR CORE MONTH
PPI 6.6% 4.5% FEB (PPI = wholesale prices)
CPI 3.0% 3.0% FEB
PCE 3.5% 3.7% JAN
GOAL 2.0% 2.0%
The above really puts in perspective how hot Wednesday's PPI report is (March 18). They are all bad, but the PPI is at a special level of bad.
The PPI Core is the regular PPI but without food, energy, and trade services
All 3 inflation sets of graphs (PPI, PCE, CPI) are at the top of my journal, one right after the other
both regular and core measures
https://www.democraticunderground.com/~progree
-For permanence, the graphs' links -
PPI (Feb): https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3634503
PCE (Jan.): https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3631734
CPI (Feb.): https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3630564
The links to the data are in those posts
They show that inflation is RISING. It is not "easing", nor is it just "sticky".
NOTE: the PCE graphs (and the table line for it) are for JANUARY, which is the latest PCE report to date.
The CPI and PPI (wholesale prices) are for February
All of this of course is before the US/Israeli attack on Iran on February 28.
--END PPI Report--------------------------------
Factory orders January
I thought I had a link. Anyway, it's for January, so I won't bother to hunt one down (taxes fortnight)
2:00 pm FOMC interest-rate decision, 2:30 pm Fed Chair Powell press conference
FOMC stands pat. https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143634591 ## Fed Chair Powell's top takeaways https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fed-chair-powells-top-takeaways-205343938.html
THURSDAY MARCH 19 (REPORTS)
8:30 am Initial jobless claims March 14
# US applications for jobless benefits fall to 205,000 last week as layoffs remain historically low, AP, 3/19/26
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-applications-for-jobless-benefits-fall-to-205-000-last-week-as-layoffs-remain-historically-low/ar-AA1YYR7a?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=69bc004a68e647cf87e1322dd11785b5&ei=28
8:30 am Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey March -- Previous report: 16.3
I'd dig up a link, but it's taxes fortnight
10:00 am Wholesale inventories January -- Previous report: 0.2%
I'd dig up a link, but it's taxes fortnight
10:00 am New home sales January (note the JANUARY)
US new home sales drop to near 3-1/2-year low in January, Reuters, 3/19/26
https://archive.ph/w2aEJ
New home sales tumbled 17.6% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 587,000 units, the lowest level since October 2022, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday.
Data for December was revised lower to show sales falling to a pace of 712,000 units instead of the previously reported 745,000 unit rate. Economists had expected home sales to fall to a rate of 720,000 units in January. Sales dropped in all four regions.
New home sales account for a small share of U.S. home sales and tend to be volatile on a month-to-month basis.
FRIDAY MARCH 20 (CALENDAR)
None Scheduled
NEXT WEEK'S CALENDAR (MAR 23-27)
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Just scraping the calendar for now, scraped 3/17/26
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
The numbers shown after each entry, if any, is the previous report's number
MONDAY MARCH 23 (CALENDAR)
10:00 am Construction spending (delayed report) Jan. 0.3%
TUESDAY MARCH 24 (CALENDAR)
8:30 am U.S. productivity (revision) Q4 2.8%
9:45 am S&P flash U.S. services PMI March 51.7
9:45 am S&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMI March 51.6
WEDNESDAY MARCH 25 (CALENDAR)
8:30 am Import price index Feb. 0.2%
8:30 am Import price index minus fuel Feb. 0.5%
THURSDAY MARCH 26 (CALENDAR)
8:30 am Initial jobless claims March 21 205,000
FRIDAY MARCH 27 (CALENDAR)
10:00 am Consumer sentiment (final) March 55.5
The full calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Revised release dates for Bureau of Labor Statistics reports: https://www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lapse-revised-release-dates.htm
BEA.GOV news release schedule (they produce reports on the GDP, Retail Sales, PCE Inflation (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge), and Personal Consumption and Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule
ADP NER Pulse (private payrolls weekly update): Is every Tuesday. The ultimate source: https://www.adpresearch.com/
and look for "NER Pulse"
Archives of previous reports
The monthly payroll employment reports from the BLS are archived at Archived News Releases (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/ ). In the list up at the top, under Major Economic Indicators, select Employment Situation ( https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm ) . That opens up links to reports going back to 1994. (Includes CPI, ECI, many others)
Unemployment insurance claims archives: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims.asp . If that doesn't work, start with https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp and click on "Weekly Claims Data" near the very bottom.
BEA's Data Archive https://www.bea.gov/news/archive
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Erika McEntarfer (fired former BLS Commissioner) "Person who was fired here - you should still trust BLS data." - The agency is being run by the same dedicated career staff who were running it while I was awaiting confirmation from the Senate. And the staff have made it clear that they are blowing a loud whistle if there is interference." https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=3614986
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The S&P 500 closed Friday March 20 at 6506, down 1.5% for the day,
and up 12.5% from the 5783 election day closing level,
and up 8.5% from the inauguration eve closing level,
and up 10.6% since the December 31, 2024 close
and down 5.0% Year-To-Date (since the December 31, 2025 close)
and down 6.8% from its all-time high
and down 3.1% from Tuesday 3/17
# Election day close (11/5/24) 5783
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 5997
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 5882
# Trump II era low point (going all the way back to election day Nov5): 4983 on April 8
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 6845
# October 28 all-time-high: 6890.90, surpassed by December 24's all-time high of 6932.00
# Several market indexes: https://finance.yahoo.com/
# S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/
# S&P 500 futures: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/
Bitcoin
Bitcoin ended 2024 at $93,429. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/
Bitcoin's all-time interday high: 126,198 on Oct. 6
Bitcoin's all-time closing high: 124,753 on Oct 6. (that's what Yahoo Finance shows, but cryptocurrencies trade 24/7)
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history/
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I'm not a fan of the DOW as it is a cherry-picked collection of just 30 stocks that are price-weighted, which is silly. It's as asinine as judging consumer price inflation by picking 30 blue chip consumer items, and weighting them according to their prices. But since there is an automatically updating embedded graphic, here it is. It takes several, like 6 hours, after the close for it to update, like about 10 PM EDT.
(If it still isn't updated, try right-clicking on it and opening in a new tab. #OR# click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/ ).
The Dow closed Thursday at 46,021, and it closed Friday at 45,577, a drop of 1.0% (444 points) for the day
https://finance.yahoo.com/
DOW: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/
. . . . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/history/
DOW
# Election day close (11/5/24) 42,222
# Last close before inauguration day: (1/17/25): 43,488
# 2024 year-end close (12/31/24): 42,544
# 2025 year-end close (12/31/25): 48,063
DJIA means Dow Jones Industrials Average. It takes about 6 hours after the close to update, so check it after 10 PM EDT. Sometimes it takes a couple days (sigh)
I don't have an embeddable graph for the S&P 500, unfortunately, but to see its graph, click on https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
While I'm at it, I might as well show Oil and the Dollar:
Crude Oil
US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB)
If you see a tiny graphics square above and no graph, right click on the square and choose "load image". There should be a total of 3 graphs. And remember that it typically takes about 6 hours after the close before these graphs update.
🚨 ❤️ 😬! 😱 < - - emoticon library for future uses
= new reply since forum marked as read