Here's the real Democratic autopsy - Doug Sosnik [View all]

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A good political rule of thumb is that a handful of moments determine the outcome of an election, and they seldom happen in a campaign’s final days or weeks. That held true in 2024. There were three decisions President Joe Biden made that ultimately determined his party’s fate.

The first was his choice to run for a second term. Campaigning in Michigan in March 2020, the then-77-year-old said he viewed himself as a transitional figure, a “bridge” to a new “generation.” That tapped into the American zeitgeist. The country was exhausted from Trump’s first term and viewed the former vice president as an acceptable short-term fix. Nothing more. Voters weren’t looking for a return to “normal” or a defender of the status quo. They were, and remain, desperate for a generational change in leadership.

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That led to the second factor that proved decisive in 2024. After taking office, Biden, under pressure from reform groups, immediately relaxed or rescinded a series of Trump administration immigration enforcement policies. This led to an unprecedented increase in illegal immigration that reversed more than a decade of decline. Pew estimates that the unauthorized immigration population in the United States reached approximately 14 million in 2023, up from 10.2 million in 2019. By the time the White House adopted emergency border restrictions in 2024, the damage had been done.

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The third factor that led to the Democrats’ 2024 defeat was the party’s misreading of the 2022 midterms. In the run-up to those elections, the public had grown increasingly concerned about Biden’s age. There was a broad expectation that Democrats were going to lose, and badly, putting more pressure on the president not to run for a second term.

But in June, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, supplying an animating issue for the Democrats that fall. The party was further aided by a favorable Senate map and poor Republican candidate recruitment in federal and state races. The Democrats went on to outperform historical trends for the party in power, and the White House touted the success as a sign of support for Biden’s presidency. It used the results as a cudgel against anyone daring to primary him in 2024.

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https://archive.ph/cKgqY

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Doug Sosnik, a senior adviser to President Bill Clinton from 1994 to 2000, is a counselor to the Brunswick Group.