General Discussion

While election data provider Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) maintains a near-perfect historical accuracy rate, the outlet has made a few notable premature race projections and retracted calls due to shifting vote trends, miscalculated outstanding ballot volumes, or data stream errors. [1, 2]
The primary "bad calls" and official retractions in DDHQ's history include:
## New Jersey's 11th Congressional District Democratic Primary (February 2026) [3]

*
* The Call: DDHQ prematurely projected a victory for establishment favorite [Tom Malinowski](https://www.google.com/search?q=tom+malinowski&kgmid=/g/11cmhw_v1s#sv=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) early in the evening during a special primary election. [4, 5]
* The Error: The model relied on early mail-in ballot data, assuming Malinowski’s lead would hold. However, late-night in-person ballot drops from Morris County completely flipped, with progressive challenger [Analilia Mejia](https://www.google.com/search?q=analilia+mejia&kgmid=/g/11f0z6d_08#sv=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) [winning late vote drops by 20% to 30%](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/decision-desk-hq-retracts-jersey-112714097.html)—a massive [65-point swing](

Link to tweet

) compared to the absentee trend. [2, 6, 7]
* The Outcome: DDHQ issued a formal apology on X, deleted the projection tweet, and pulled back the call. Mejia ultimately won the primary. [1, 2]
*

## [Seattle Mayoral Election (November 2025)](https://www.google.com/search?q=Seattle+Mayoral+Election+on+2025-11-04&kgmid=/g/11sp_w2fmh#sv=CBwSzQQK-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)

*
* The Call: DDHQ projected that moderate incumbent [Bruce Harrell](https://www.google.com/search?q=bruce+harrell&kgmid=/m/06428vp#sv=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) would defeat progressive challenger Katie Wilson. [8]
* The Error: DDHQ based its projection model on a data point that [approximately 71,000 ballots remained uncounted](https://www.kuow.org/stories/kuow-contractor-decision-desk-HQ-retracts-call-projecting-harrell-s-victory-in-mayor-s-race). King County Elections quickly flagged this as incorrect, clarifying that roughly 100,000 ballots actually remained to be processed. Because late-stage Pacific Northwest mail-in drops historically favor progressive candidates, the margin was too unstable to call. [9, 10, 11, 12, 13]
* The Outcome: Realizing the underlying outstanding vote count was wrong, DDHQ officially retracted the projection the next day to await more official data from the county. [1, 8]
*

## California's 21st Congressional District (November 2018)

*
* The Call: On election night, DDHQ (alongside the Associated Press) projected that Republican incumbent [David Valadao](https://www.google.com/search?q=david+valadao&kgmid=/m/0g55rlx#sv=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) had won re-election against Democratic challenger T.J. Cox.
* The Error: Valadao initially held an [8% lead on election night](https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1oqhyjq/decision_desk_hq_calls_seattle_mayoral_race_for/). However, the data desk failed to account for California's highly protracted vote-counting window and a massive surge of late-arriving mail-in ballots that heavily favored Democrats.
* The Outcome: As late ballots trickled in over the subsequent two weeks, Valadao's lead entirely evaporated. DDHQ was forced to rescind its projection after Cox overtook Valadao to win the seat by less than 1,000 votes.
*

## Notable "Controversial" Calls (Not Retracted)
DDHQ also occasionally catches criticism for being exceptionally aggressive on election nights. While these were not "wrong" (the projected candidates did eventually win), they are frequently cited by election analysts as highly risky calls: [2, 6]

*
* The 2020 Presidential Race: DDHQ was the [very first outlet to call the entire presidential race](https://www.facebook.com/wmwfl/posts/presidency-already-called by-decision-desk/2026609184141748/) for Joe Biden on Friday morning, November 6, 2020—roughly 24 hours before the Associated Press and the major TV networks felt comfortable doing so.
* The 2022 Nevada Senate Race: DDHQ called the Nevada Senate race for Democrat [Catherine Cortez Masto](https://www.google.com/search?q=catherine+cortez+masto&kgmid=/m/02rtp9t#sv=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) when she was still technically trailing in the live vote count, relying on strict mathematical modeling of outstanding mail ballots in Clark County that later proved correct. [14]
*


[1] [https://www.reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1ord6oy/decision_desk_hq_states_that_it_made_its/)
[2] [https://www.yahoo.com](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/decision-desk-hq-retracts-jersey-112714097.html)
[3] [https://x.com](

Link to tweet

)
[4] [https://en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_Desk_HQ)
[5] [https://www.yahoo.com](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/decision-desk-hq-retracts-jersey-112714097.html)
[6] [https://news.bgov.com](https://news.bgov.com/bloomberg-government-news/new-jerseys-tom-malinowski-wins-primary-for-suburban-house-seat)
[7] [https://www.yahoo.com](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/decision-desk-hq-retracts-jersey-112714097.html)
[8] [https://www.kuow.org](https://www.kuow.org/stories/kuow-contractor-decision-desk-HQ-retracts-call-projecting-harrell-s-victory-in-mayor-s-race)
[9] [https://www.kuow.org](https://www.kuow.org/stories/kuow-contractor-decision-desk-HQ-retracts-call-projecting-harrell-s-victory-in-mayor-s-race)
[10] [https://www.fastcompany.com](https://www.fastcompany.com/90569525/how-a-4-year-old-startup-will-call-the-winners-on-election-night)
[11] [https://www.kuow.org](https://www.kuow.org/stories/kuow-contractor-decision-desk-HQ-retracts-call-projecting-harrell-s-victory-in-mayor-s-race)
[12] [https://www.reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/1oqfxpp/decision_desk_hq_calls_the_seattle_mayoral/)
[13] [https://www.reddit.com](https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/1or8mky/ddhq_uncalls_mayor_election/)
[14] [https://en.wikipedia.org](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_Desk_HQ)