I think when it looked like Becerra was far enough ahead in the polling, a lot of last minute votes went to Steyer.

I doubt Steyer can make up the difference but there’s still a day to go for ballots to be delivered.

He is almost guaranteed to make up the difference.

Some are of the opinion that D v D races will depress Dem turnout.

I am of the opinion that due to Trump we will have more than enough motivation to vote. If not, then damn it all to hell.

Having two Dems is also insurance for a Stalwell event.

It is basically like a primary: when a party has a fiercely contested race in a primary on the ssme day as the other party, it is the other party that has depressed turnout. Usually not the high profile race.

with at least two million left to count I think.

That is interesting. And there is 21% of the total vote left. In the past several days I've moved from the unlikely to maybe to legitimate raised eyebrow.

This is going to keep going for a minute.

It all depends where the outstanding votes are, but it certainly looks more plausible today than it did yesterday.

About 15% of SF's vote was added to the total today. It's now at 81% total, and Steyer has been winning handily there so far. So he's definitely going to continue picking up votes all around the Bay Area, but it's a question of how many are outstanding in other districts.

Steyer finishs at 26.5%. There are some redder areas still left to count so if Steyer wins it will still be probably within 1%

I was glancing around counties, totals, % in, etc, and there are some red areas still outstanding where that trend will not hold up. There are some Bay Area counties like San Mateo and Marin that have a lot of outstanding votes. But there are also counties like Sacramento and Ventura sitting out there with a lot of votes left where Steyer has not done as well.

So, it really comes down to, "How many Democrats actually did wait until the last second?" It has to be enough to make significant dents in the trends of counties where Steyer has lagged so far.

I'm still in my maybe mode, but if I were asked to put money down on this based on what I see left county by county, I'd be cautiously pessimistic and say Steyer gets close but not quite there.

But hey, we'll see!

Late votes anywhere are likely to lean fairly progressive/ working class. But there will certainly be fewer so it isnt a guarantee the batches look as good for steyer as they did yesterday.

Since it's now 5pm, may take a minute to get the full catch up. And it's Monday. So maybe they got more done. But as of just now:


79% of votes in

Candidate Party Votes Percent Pct. Chart showing percent
Xavier Becerra
Democrat 2,114,045 +0.0% 27.6%
Steve Hilton
Republican 1,922,474 +0.0% 25.1
Tom Steyer
Democrat 1,709,991 +0.0% 22.3
Chad Bianco
Republican 783,573 +0.0% 10.2

As of 8:18 EDT:

Candidate..........Votes..........Pct
Xavier Becerra.....2,162,016.....27.66%
Steve Hilton.....1,962,285.....25.11%
Tom Steyer.....1,750,449.....22.40%

84% reported

I think that might be a little premature 😒 🤔

as Decision Desk.

Its wild they think that is a safe call with a 216k deficit between steyer and Hilton and 1.5 million to count in heavily dem areas. They will have so much egg on their face given their past bad calls if they get this wrong.

I really think they are playing with fire.

But if he makes it you will definitely get an "i told you so. 😜



The stakes are worse for ddhq though. Almost hoping he doesnt make it just so they can save face lol

There is 17% left to count. Sacramento, San Francisco and a ton of other blue counties are the primary ones left with remaining votes and they are 60% at best.

I dont know if Steyer makes it to the ballot but it is going to be really really close and Decision Desk took a major risk with this call. If they are wrong (which they very well might be), they are probably going to be out of business soon -considering this would be far from the first bad call.

Many of the votes are also in staunch red counties such as Riverside.

It will not be Steyer.

"I dont know if Steyer makes it to the ballot but it is going to be really really close and Decision Desk took a major risk with this call. If they are wrong (which they very well might be), they are probably going to be out of business soon -considering this would be far from the first bad call."

You statement is 100% incorrect. The only "bad call" they've ever made was the Seattle Mayor race. Becerra will be the candidate for us, and it's important for us in CA to coalesce behind him.

It'll be steyer and becerra dominating the rest of the batches and late vote pushing steyer into second there and further securing becerras lead overall. This will be true with most of the rest of the remaining counties. Int he statewide count, I really think steyer again is likely to make it to a close 3rd or second place in a day or two.

Ddhq made 3 bad calls total. They were already on uneasy footing before this election but making a 4th bad call will destroy them.
Here is an AI summary of all of them:

They liked his environment policies.

So far he is within 2.5% of Hilton with 17% left to count in super blue counties. He might still win.

And, MANY of those votes are not in "super blue counties." Plus, many super blue counties went for Becerra, who is a Democrat.

They are only a few and make up over half of the remaining expected vote. Becerra did great with the early votes but steyer is winning the same percent as becerra in the late vote with the gop doing horribly in the late batches.

Anyways. We don't have to wait long to see how right or wrong we are. The next batch will cover a lot and give us a great idea tonight how much more runway steyer has to make it to 2nd.

I live in Sacramento, Steyer is a distant third and will stay there. It is not possible for Steyer to get #2 at this point unless there is an almost 15% difference. It is not happening. I'm done discussing this with you sigh

And, since when is Riverside super blue?

Last edited Tue Jun 9, 2026, 01:53 PM - Edit history (2)

I often was one of those late votes when i spent decades living in riverside and the IE. In fact the IE has been an area where Becerra received the lions share of his late vote boosting him to first. The IE is very purple and increasingly blue as it is one of the fastest growing regions in California. Not saying thats where Steyers hail Mary will come from, but it is certainly far less republican than most people think. Hilton percentage ceiling has been hit and there is nowhere else for it to go but down. The only question is: how far down will it go?

Anyways. We will find out soon what the final vote counts look like. I think Steyer will shoot ahead in batches in Sacramento even though he hasn't had that happen yet (only 50% 64% counted tbf) although I am completely open to you being right as well!

I respect that you live in Sacramento. I also spent a good amount of years there as well. Nice place!

ETA just to clarify: Steyer doesnt need to get double digits over the entire pack. He only needs to get double digits over Hilton like the results we saw yesterday. He can still come in second in the rest of the batches behind Becerra and catch up on Hilton significantly.

But let's be real here... I didn't even know who Milton was until this election.

"A vote for this guy will mean we'll get press conferences from Paris Hilton"

Either way, I also still had no idea who this guy even was before this primary.

A wet sock could probably beat... Hinton? Milton?

Wait till the last minute and vote to make sure Hilton is not in the top two. I preferred the older method of voting for my favorite dem regardless of their chance to win. I always vote and vote educated. It’s a strategic game.
-Airplane

As long as it was received by today, it will be counted!

You told me so!

Completely on the mark with Sac!