General Discussion

I believe if the blue/bluish states mentioned passed a law in each state that required all businesses of 50 or more employees to submit their Federal tax dollars from their employees and for their business to an ESCROW account controlled by the state along with all records and which the states would routinely submit to IRS ONLY IF there had been no attempts to withhold agreed-upon FEMA or university or other funding. And if Trump's admin as the prime example, was withholding or making attempts to harm a blue state through directed targeted policies then only the amount EQUAL to what the state would owe in relation to the others (deducting for Callifornia as example the $ 80 million that that state pays over and above to support all the red states) well, there would be dramatic impact.

These ESCROW accounts could be merely "pass-through" in any future administration that was not trying to harm these blue states, but the withholding by even just California, Illinois, and New York would fully devastate the remaining US coffers and red states. If you think things would not dramatically change (even if it became a secession by default) then I think you need to consider the impacts of that premise more fully.