Let's talk about Trump's Iran buildup, what it looks like, and what comes next.... - Belle of the Ranch [View all]

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's Iran buildup, what it looks like, and what comes next.

About a week ago, I put out a video going over Trump's decision to deploy additional military assets to the Mid East. The short version of that video is that the deployment of the second carrier was unnecessary and primarily a show for his base at home. But the deployment of the THAAD system was a clear indication that the military thinks chicken and waffles Trump is serious about hitting Iran again. Watch the video below for more details.

Since then, the buildup has only intensified. Trying to establish US intent based on Trump's statements is a fool's errand. He is not a reliable source of information. But looking at assets deployed can tell us a lot. The administration is saying they'll be ready for military action by this weekend. The reality is they've been capable of strikes in Iran for quite some time.

Since the last video, the amount of attack aircraft in the region has dramatically increased. Perhaps more importantly, we've seen KC135 refueling planes, and we've seen a lot of airborne control centers enter the region or go to places close enough to be used. Unlike last time, this buildup is huge.

The last strikes were over in 30 minutes. There are now enough resources there to run a campaign exceeding 30 days, which really means forever because of resupply. For their part, Iran is deploying air defenses everywhere, and we've got word that their medical services are already on alert. The country is promising retaliation for any attack.

Trump has pulled a number of US officials from the region. He has also pulled what looks like all US troops from Syria. This is reducing Iran's targets for retaliation.

So what's the plan? It looks like Trump wants to try regime change from the air. That's risky.

First, when the stated reason is regime change, the opposition government fights with everything they have. They have nothing to lose. They win or they're gone.

Second, strikes large enough to destabilize a government to the point that it collapses generally carry a heavy civilian cost. That could create a situation where a government that would be friendly to the US can't because the people are so angry with the US they won't allow it.

Third, it's hard to say who comes to power next. They might be worse.

It looks like Trump wants the exiled son of Iran's last shah to return to power. And the Shah's son told the press he hopes the strikes expedite the process of the current government's downfall. That probably wasn't smart. If the US creates a lot of damage to the civilian population, he's now on record tying himself to the campaign.

The obvious question is why would the US go to war here? The cynical answer is that like many conflicts in the past, you have a politician in power that is increasingly unpopular and he needs to wag the dog and change the story. Another answer is that after Trump's long string of failures with Iran, he's left with large-scale military operations as the only way to solve a problem he created when he pulled out of the original deal. Another is that he's carrying out longtime establishment goals by trying to realign Iran with the West. The one reason that isn't present, an imminent risk to the US.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.