Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2023 Feb 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2023 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2023

Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02
00-03UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 2.67
03-06UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.00
06-09UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
09-12UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.67
18-21UT 3.33 2.67 2.67
21-00UT 2.67 3.00 2.33

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected early on 28 Feb
due to CME influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2023

Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2023

Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02
R1-R2 50% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 15% 10% 10%

Rationale: There's a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts on all
three days.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard#