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flamin lib

(14,559 posts)
6. I must grudgingly admit that the gunner vote made a minuscule difference.
Thu Nov 24, 2016, 01:48 PM
Nov 2016

However, the loss of the election can be attributed to a single action by a single person; James Comey.

I was checking 538.com multiple times daily for the last two months of the election. HRC was ahead 5-7% in all demographics except non college educated white males. Beginning four days after Comey announced the 're-opening' of his investigation of the emails, the time that post announcement polls took effect, the lead began to narrow to the point that there was only a 2% edge nationally and less in some swing states. The same trend was mirrored in the Senate races.

In the final analysis HRC turned out about 5% fewer voters in minorities, millennials and college educated whites than the polls ten days earlier indicated would turn out.

With a margin that thin the less than 1% of voters that the NRA can dependably turn out became a factor.

With the help of Russian hacking, editing and planting of DNC emails and Comey's intervention the power of a tiny subgroup (roughly matched by an equally fervent gun safety movement) was given a possibly pivotal role.

So yes, the gunner vote made a difference but only because the Comey letter suppressed the Democratic turnout. The Trump numbers remained flat so the NRA can't claim that they generated extra turnout of the gun vote. The $50 million spent by the NRA didn't increase Trump's vote. With the suppression of marginal HRC voters the Gunner vote, which would not have gone to HRC in any event, would have meant nothing.

Much to my dismay, the gun issue is still too far down the list of concerns of US voters to be a factor in either direction.

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