Two new studies published in leading scientific journals conclude that stabilizing long-term climate risks will require sustained net-negative carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for centuries. Approaching the problem from distinct perspectives – legal and technological feasibility on the one hand, and economic optimization under uncertainty on the other – the research converges on a consistent message: reaching net zero is not enough.

Both studies were led by researchers from the Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group of the IIASA Advancing Systems Analysis Program and underline that achieving the Paris Agreement goals will demand durable commitments to large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) extending far beyond current policy timelines.

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The implications for policymakers are profound. Many countries projected to become wealthier after mid-century – while simultaneously facing increasing exposure to sea-level rise and permafrost thaw – have strong incentives to adopt more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), establish explicit gross carbon dioxide removal targets, and introduce intertemporal instruments such as Carbon Removal Obligations to guarantee the reversal of temperature overshoot.

In summary, climate stabilization will require durable institutions that connect present emissions with future removals across generations.

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