Here's my admittedly imperfect analysis of where the market stands, and a question. [View all]

From mid-2011 to early-2020 inflation was pretty much under control, generally under 3% annually. Covid hit, the market crashed, but within 5-6 months it had regained most of it back. Then inflation became a problem in 2021-2022. By March or April 2021 at the latest it was clear to most that things were spiraling.

Still, the market continued to climb, seemingly unaffected, until late December 2021.

For whatever reason, investors had seen enough at that point (the year ended with inflation at 7% over the previous year). The market went into a steep 10-month slide, after which it did not return to its former height until two full years after the slide had begun. (The turnaround began around mid-October of 2022, after two consecutive negative inflation reports for July and August.)

So. This being the case, I suppose I should not be particularly surprised that investors aren't pulling out just yet (although I, a novice, dumped all mine the day after tRump hit Iran.) They seem to care only about inflation, for the most part, but seem to have a high tolerance for it in the short term.

This being the case, now that I'm no longer working full-time preparing taxes and can take the time to watch things daily, I'm considering dipping a toe back in despite the recent inflation - but remaining prepared to pull back again if it doesn't start showing signs of real improvement by, say, November.

Does this seem at all like a reasonable analysis? I mean, for those who like to try and time things a bit, not for the more risk-averse ppl who just buy and hold.