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bucolic_frolic

(48,368 posts)
3. Avoiding the bubble and hiding in Treasuries?
Sun Dec 15, 2024, 03:52 PM
Dec 15

I like your chances. Keyword is major brokerage house.

You can chase this down the rabbit hole with worrisome questions. Could a debt crisis cause the USA to not honor its T-Bills. Not likely, in fact very unlikely. Could FDIC insurance be dissolved. Yes, it could. But the US Treasury would have some say.

I focus on the quality of the holder. Where are their HQ located? There are states with lax regulations, dating back a century. Money Market funds have had clauses written into them over the last 15 years about NAV not always being 1.00. In what state is the arbitration clause litigated?

I don't think all regional banks or upstart brokers and banks are as airtight as major banks. But today, is anything too big to fail?

With most mutual funds and many or most ETFs invested in the same securities, what would happen in the event of say ... a failure of one of the Magnificent Seven stocks? Or a few funds? Or any major company? Sequestration and liquidity from the Fed most likely. Volatility would be another thing.

I'm not the last word. But I think inflation is more risk than default because of liquidity injections. And poor productivity growth is here to stay. We are not growing like it's 1955.

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