No one knows what to say. My take - investors, pro or amateur, are just dumb and don't remember 73-75, the last great cyclical, broad-based recession. Broad-based because the price of oil effected everyone and OPEC laid it on us because Nixon devalued the dollar by unlinking it with gold. 1987 was a market crash, and temporary. 2000 was a tech bubble. 2008 was a housing bubble. These were sector crashes, but didn't involve everything like 1974. Now we have everything, except maybe software and consumerism.
Anyone who thinks this Fed will tame inflation with .5% rate hikes all the way to ... are you ready for it .... 3 percent is stone cold stupid. It took 6-8 years for inflation to roll through the 1970s before Volcker gave it hard medicine. 14% was hard medicine. 3% is a candy bar. 3% might reduce inflation to 5-6%. Won't that be great? Powell has no idea. We are so screwed.
On my agenda this week .... hi yield bonds, yes or no. Oil stocks have made a 3 bar move and most broken out ... will we see 20% higher from here rapidly, or is there a short opportunity.
Housing went rocketing with Toll Bros. LEN soon to report. Value funds did well in the 1970s, though there were few around of any distinct variety. They were just funds with managers and names, no classification other than stock, bond, mixed, growth. No index funds really. You followed fund managers.
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