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Economy

Make7

(8,546 posts)

1. Their model is driven by the raw data so it can jump around when the new data is released.

Reply to progree (Original post)

Sun Apr 24, 2022, 12:21 AM

Apr 2022

Kinda odd the way the Atlanta Fed forecast (green line) bounces around wildly.

You can see the dates when the datasets they incorporate into their model are available by hitting the Release Dates tab below the chart.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=4#tabfa9ccf1bede04c3b8a3ac751883e58a90
(Hopefully that link takes you right to it.)

They probably use some historical data from the previous quarter and prior year to guesstimate values in their model prior to the actual datasets being released. Theoretically it should get closer to what the prediction should be as more of the data is added to their calculations (i.e. as the actual release date by the BEA nears).

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Q1 GDP - Atlanta Fed's estimate of what it will be: 1.3% seas adj annual rate [View all] progree Apr 2022 OP

Their model is driven by the raw data so it can jump around when the new data is released. Make7 Apr 2022 #1

Thanks! I much appreciate the explanation progree Apr 2022 #2

The NY Fed suspended doing their Nowcast estimate due to volatility in data due to Covid. Make7 Apr 2022 #3