Prices for any available supplies have spiked more than a third since the war in Iran paralyzed global trade.

The U.S., which in some years imports half of its urea fertilizer, is about 25% short of the usual supplies that farmers buy for spring planting, according to The Fertilizer Institute,

More than 30% of world nitrogen fertilizer exports, as well as fertilizer components like sulfur, pass through the now effectively closed Strait of Hormuz.

The length of time that the Strait of Hormuz is closed is critical. Fertilizer loaded onto ships in the Gulf can take weeks to reach markets like the U.S., and then must be transferred to river barges, trucks or trains to reach farmland. Most fertilizer needs to be applied before the crop starts growing, so any supplies arriving too late cannot be used for the 2026 crop.