Connecticut

Foley, if elected, will be largely Romneyed.

Malloy may have inherited a mess but he made that mess worse, not better. He needs to go. He should have been primaried but the state party threw around a lot of weight to insure he got a clean nomination because they feared a primary would leave the winner damaged going into what they knew would be a tough general election. (That's logical, but they should have instead leaned on him to not seek a second term...he's never not trailed "generic Democrat" in this race. An unnamed Democrat who isn't Malloy would be up 5% on Foley, not down 6%.)

Foley will have to deal with CGA and CT State Senate majorities that will continue to do whatever they want and force vetoed legislation back down his throat. The field is largely changed from where it was under Rell...it's not Democrats breaking ranks and joining opposition, giving Rell victories in the legislature despite CGA being overwhelmingly Democratic; it's Republicans (it only takes ~2-3 on any given bill. Dems are 2 seats short of supermajority in both chambers.) breaking with the caucus to vote with the Democrats. Republicans passed the gun bill. Republicans passed the Medicaid expansion. Republicans passed the tax increase. Republicans approved that budget. Republicans are the weak ones here.

Foley faces 4 years, if he wins, of battling his own party. Legislators breaking ranks to hold their seats versus a governor fighting to be re-electable. That's if the GOP doesn't lose seats and give the Democrats clean supermajorities with which to bully the Governor.