Hezbollah Misjudged Israel's Weakness and Iran's Might - By Yaroslav Trofimov, WSJ [View all]

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In retrospect, this was the outcome of Nasrallah’s making two strategic mistakes: grossly underestimating Israel, his foe, and overestimating the abilities of his patron, Iran, and its network of allied militant groups in the region. Hezbollah possesses a vast arsenal of missiles and rockets, including precision-guided ballistic missiles. This was meant to deter an Israeli escalation. Its weapons haven’t inflicted any significant damage on Israel so far.

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While Israeli commanders are aware of the perils of ground combat—and remember the losses of the campaign in 2006—the political problem is that Israel’s stated goal—the return of some 60,000 Israelis displaced by Hezbollah attacks from areas along the border—is hard to achieve with air power alone. Despite recent blows, Hezbollah refuses to stop cross-border fire without Israel also agreeing to a cease-fire with Hamas in Gaza. “They can’t do it—it would be a humiliating defeat for them,” said Eyal Zisser, a specialist on the region and vice rector of Tel Aviv University.

The dramatic weakening of Hezbollah creates a particular challenge for Iran, which has relied on the Lebanese group’s missiles and rockets as a deterrent against any potential Israeli attack on its own nuclear program. “It’s transformative for the region because Hezbollah is not just another proxy for Iran. It’s very much part of Iran’s own defensive doctrine and its main tool of deterrence against Israel,” said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at the consulting firm Le Beck International. “This puts Iran in a very difficult position, because Hezbollah was built to defend Iran, but now Iran is faced with the dilemma of potentially having to defend Hezbollah.”

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The Oct. 7 attack by Hamas, which killed nearly 1,200 Israelis and led to the invasion of Gaza that has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian deaths, was a humiliating intelligence failure for Israel. Yet, one of the reasons why Israel didn’t keep a close eye on Gaza was precisely because, ever since 2006, Israeli military and intelligence services have been focusing on what they considered an inevitable war with Hezbollah. The sequence of strikes in September showcased how thoroughly Hezbollah had been infiltrated and helped restore the tarnished reputation of Israeli intelligence.

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But what Hezbollah has clearly lost inside Lebanon is the aura of invincibility that has allowed it essentially to control the Lebanese state. The country has had no president since October 2022 because of obstructionism by Hezbollah and its allies that prevented the country’s parliament from holding a vote. Hezbollah is now risking its standing with its base within Lebanon’s Shiite community, especially as residents of mostly Shiite areas in the south and the Bekaa Valley are fleeing their homes because of Israeli airstrikes.

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https://archive.ph/c6K9D#selection-2178.0-2178.1

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I consider Trofimov as one of the best, if not the best international analyst. WSJ is just one platform for him