Trump appears to have lost a large segment of his marginal support, and some core base support. And yes, in the swing states, the polls are within the margin of error. But, what appears to have happened is that, because they got criticized the last couple of cycles for being off, in some cases too favorable to Trump, in others, too favorable to Biden, they have made some adjustments that damps her poll numbers down a bit because they might be wrong. And there's still a lot of data they're using left from when Biden was running. There are signs, in all of those swing states, that Democrats may get more votes than they counted on or than the pollsters said they would. Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all have senate races in which the Democrat leads outside the margin of error, except Michigan, where Slotkin has about a 4 point lead. In North Carolina, the presence of Mark Robinson on the ballot is bound to drag down Republicans including Trump, who endorsed him, and that race is a dead heat. And I think the Georgia election board just knocked Trump's chances of winning down a few points there.
And then, there's abortion rights referendums on the ballot in Arizona, Florida, Montana and Nevada, states where Democrats are on the ballot at or near the top.
Harris' favorability rating is a huge indicator. She's moved the needle 16 points, a record for recent elections. For Trump the needle is moving, down, not up, and for Vance, well, that's an anchor weight dragging Trump down.
And from the perspective of political impact, you can't script things like the lies they've told, and have had exposed, against the people of Springfield, Ohio. That's going to hurt big. We have yet to see the effects of over 300 Republican endorsements, which is also huge.
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