Last edited Sun May 17, 2026, 11:26 AM - Edit history (1)
On March 14, 2025 I took a screenshot of their Winter 2025 Forecast (dated Jan 9, 2025). Threats of tariffs, threats to Canada & Greenland and ICE activity were already heating up and their forecast sounded like a lot of unmitigated bullshit.
Transcription (emphasis mine):
The U.S. Travel Winter 2025 Forecast projects travel expenditure in the U.S. will continue to grow at normalized rates, driven by resilient consumer spending, sustained business investment and major event promoting international visits.
Looking ahead: For 2025, total U.S. Travel spending is prjected to grow 3.9% to $1.35 trillion, with additional growth to $1.46 trillion (inflation-adjusted) by 2028.
A mega-decade of events could drive record visitation to the U.S. The FIFA 2026 World Cup, America's 250th Anniversary, the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles, the Men's and Women's Rugby World Cups in 2031 and 2033 and the 2034 Winter Games in Salt Lake City have the potential to bring more visits than ever. U.S. Travel forecasts 8.8% growth for inbound international visits in 2025 and 8.9% growth in 2026.
Growth in international visits to the United States remains an important factor in re-establishing travel as one of our most important exports, with more than $200 billion in international spending projected for 2025.
After I took that screenshot I kept checking from time to time and that forecast remained unchanged for quite a while. They finally updated the forecast to acknowledge some reality, but they are still putting lipstick on the pig:
International Inbound Travel
International inbound travel spending fell 2.4% in 2025 to $175 billion but is expected to rebound 1.6% to $178 billion in 2026. That figure is still 18% below 2019 levels (inflation-adjusted). Growth is projected to accelerate in 2027 and beyond.
Inbound international visits declined 5.5% by volume in 2025 to 68.3 million, driven primarily by reduced visits from Canada. Inbound visits are expected to grow 3.4% to 70.6 million in 2026, driven by leisure travel and supported by major global events, including the World Cup in 2026 and Summer Olympics in 2028. A return to the level of 2019 (79 million visits) is not expected until 2029.
The recovery in 2026 is expected to be uneven across markets. Visits from Canada are projected to increase after a 21% volume decline in 2025.
The pace of international inbound travel recovery remains sensitive to policy conditions, global sentiment and geopolitical stability.
https://www.ustravel.org/research/travel-forecasts
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