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I could see the Old Man pulling out unilaterally—even if it’s just by reassigning every U.S. officer with a NATO posting and stopping payment on all NATO-facing funding. He wouldn’t be abrogating the treaty; he’d just be acting under his powers as Commander in Chief.

Is it accurate or even legal? No, probably not. But will the current Congress do anything to stop it? If we take Congress in January, a Democratic-controlled Congress might do something—but that’s a long way off.

I think Europe is smart to build a contingency. And even if the U.S. does not pull out, they may slide toward a Europe-centered NATO-like organization, and the alliance could dissolve under our feet.

And I’m not sure I could blame them. We have proven an inconsistent ally at best in the last 10–20 years.

I hope none of this comes to pass. But none of it would surprise me. One of the worst things the Old Man has done is squander the immense influence and goodwill the U.S. has built up around the world over the last 75 years. His lack of understanding of the value of Soft Power has caused irreparable harm.