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The US, Israel, North Korea, Russia, France and others have nukes.

The assurance of 'mutually guaranteed total destruction' after one uses a nuke first stops the whole thing from happening.

Iran having nukes wouldn't change anything.
They have more incentive now than ever before.

It would force the US to 'play nice' with Iran, just like it plays nice with other countries that have nukes.

Nuclear Warhead Inventory by country:

"As of 2025, nine countries possess nuclear weapons, with the United States and Russia holding the vast majority of the global stockpile.
According to the most recent data from January 2025, the United States possesses 5,177 nuclear warheads and Russia possesses 5,459, while China has approximately 600.
The remaining nuclear-armed states hold significantly smaller arsenals: France (290), United Kingdom (225), India (180), Pakistan (170), Israel (90), and North Korea (50).
In total, the global nuclear stockpile stands at approximately 12,241 warheads, though estimates from late 2025 suggest the number may be slightly higher at 13,000. "

No one wins a nuclear war.
Enough nukes to wipe out all life on this planet, permanently.

There's a few movies on the topic.