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Lower Immigration Projections Mean Lower Breakeven Employment Growth Estimates, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 8/28/25
The old number: 150,000 jobs per month needed to keep the unemployment rate stable
The new number: 57,000 +/- 25,000 at a 90% confidence interval (think Heinz 57 varieties)
FFI: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143563268#post4

Diane Swonk at KPMG, 3/6/26: at 1:32 in the video: 10,000 +/- 30,000 jobs needed to hold unemployment rate steady
from https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/chief-economist-breaks-down-the-latest-jobs-report/vi-AA1XHf22
She doesn't say where that number comes from. It's quite significantly lower than the August 2025 Federal Reserve St. Louis number above.

The Labor Force in February (the latest) has increased by only 42,000 in the past 12 months (an average of 3,500 per month). It's down 9,000 from May.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000

ETA: With the recent massive downward benchmark revisions
Private sector jobs per BLS
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001

1/2024: 133,892,000
1/2025: 134,711,000
Difference: 819,000 private sector jobs (an average of 68,250/month) in Biden's last year.

The difference between the 1/2025 number and 1/2026 number (135,229,000) is 518k (43,167/month) in Trump's first year

BTW, the jobs number changes in the headlines (e.g. 62,000 in March) are NET new jobs, i.e. jobs added MINUS jobs lost. So merely replacing a departed worker is a net zero jobs gain. In both the BLS and ADP numbers.