Latest Breaking News

Yes, you did make your "There probably wasn't an increase in jobs" in the context of seasonally adjusted jobs, and I agree that the November +64k seasonally adjusted gain is likely to be revised down to zero or less. So if I had this subthread to do all over, I'd reorient it to another perspective rather than a correction.

Just to be clear - I very strongly believe in doing seasonal adjustments and that the numbers that are primarily reported should be the seasonally adjusted ones, so that they are more comparable to each other from month to month and season to season.

And I very much appreciate you explaining to several in this thread and others that the numbers being presented, like 105,000 jobs lost in October and 64,000 gain in November are seasonally adjusted, and so adjust for the effect of seasonal job patterns like Christmas hires.

I find myself doing that many times a month (in this thread, my #19 had this purpose), and I'm VERY glad to see you sharing in that burden. It's a point I also make in my daily S&P 500 thread in the Economy Group. You will also see that I've also benefited from your other work there too - for example that Powell did not say the numbers are being fudged (I've also read the entire 26 page press conference),

and that the million (or 1.1 million) "jobs lost" this year, as reported by Challenger, Gray, and Christmas are ANNOUCED LAYOFFS, and are not actual layoffs, and they are NOT net job loss numbers (net of hiring) etc.

And like you, I don't think much of the people who screech Krasnov Krasnov! every time an economic report comes out that doesn't meet our ideological predilections.

I consider you a very important ally, even though we don't seem to get along.