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Wiz Imp

(8,466 posts)
8. To be clear, "Employment" is defined completely differently
Tue Nov 25, 2025, 10:12 AM
Nov 25

between the Payroll survey and the Household survey. They are NOT measuring the same thing.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ces_cps_trends.htm

National employment estimates from both the household and payroll surveys are published in the Employment Situation news release each month. The estimates differ because the surveys have distinct definitions of employment and distinct survey and estimation methods.


Comparison:
Employment concept
-Household Survey (CPS)-Estimate of employed people (multiple jobholders are counted only once). Includes people on unpaid leave from their jobs.
-Payroll Survey (CES)-Estimate of jobs (multiple jobholders are counted for each nonfarm payroll job). Includes only people who received pay for the reference pay period.

Employment inclusions and exclusions
-Household Survey (CPS)-Includes the unincorporated self-employed, unpaid family workers in family businesses, agriculture and related workers, workers in private households, and workers on unpaid leave. Excludes workers on furlough for the entire reference week, even if they receive pay for the furlough period (they are considered unemployed, on temporary layoff).
-Payroll Survey (CES)-Excludes all of the groups listed at left, except for the logging component of agriculture and related industries. Includes furloughed workers if they receive pay for any portion of the pay period that includes the furlough.

Recommendations

2 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Wooo hooo! So much winning, TACO!!! marble falls Nov 25 #1
The job loss numbers seem low - just like the inflation numbers. NoMoreRepugs Nov 25 #2
I trust numbers from ADP a hell of a lot more than anything from the govt. right now. groundloop Nov 25 #3
This is only "private payrolls" (private industry) BumRushDaShow Nov 25 #4
Remember popsdenver Nov 25 #16
I'm waiting for the recent jobs report Javaman Nov 25 #5
the ADP numbers cover about 20% of the nation's private workforce. progree Nov 25 #6
To be clear, "Employment" is defined completely differently Wiz Imp Nov 25 #8
Thank you. Yes, that's part of the problem -- the various surveys don't measure the same thing progree Nov 25 #9
Some info on how ADP calculates their report and differs from the government's report IronLionZion Nov 25 #11
Note this is not the normal monthly ADP report Wiz Imp Nov 25 #7
Busy busy day: Retail sales, Producer Price Index, Consumer Confidence 😱 progree Nov 25 #10
I didn't even know when the September PPI was going to release but it did today and I have the OP up BumRushDaShow Nov 25 #14
Thanks! 😊 /nt progree Nov 25 #15
Went to a wake yesterday, saw people I had not seen in many years, multiple people were laid Shellback Squid Nov 25 #12
The saddest part SS popsdenver Nov 25 #17
I hope they'll be ok, damn, too many people are suffering under this regime and the new AI boom Shellback Squid Nov 25 #18
Employment has been good for some years and not a big issue. Pay rates were the problem. twodogsbarking Nov 25 #13
it's a worldwide consensus of his handling of covid, dipshit wants credit while dissing the shot..omg! Shellback Squid Nov 25 #19
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