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progree

(11,544 posts)
7. Graph, and source link, plus a comment: the robust 0.4% increase in sales in December was all due to inflation
Tue Jan 28, 2025, 06:25 PM
Jan 28

The CPI also increased 0.4% in December
 CPI: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
CPI news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Link to the consumer confidence source: https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

GRAPH

I notice that consumer confidence figures were considerably higher pre-pandemic -- I think that might be why so many told pollsters pre-election that their financial situation was better 4 years ago then now -- they were probably thinking pre-pandemic for all I can think of when they respond like this, not to conditions in fall 2020, which of course was deep in the first year of the pandemic.

The link also has a graph of the two components of the consumer confidence index -- the Present Situation index and the Expectations index. The Expectations index has been hovering around 80 (1985=100) for years - " that usually signals a recession ahead."
There's another graph there --

Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months remained near the series low.

Latest reading: 65% (this has been trending down from a peak of about 73% in May 2023)

Average 12-month inflation expectations increased from 5.1% to 5.3% in January, likely reflecting stickier inflation in recent months. Additionally, references to inflation and prices continue to dominate write-in responses. (sadly, no graph -Progree)


For some reason the Conference Board's consumer confidence inflation outlook is always much higher than that of the competing University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which is usually in the low 3's percent IIRC

Another factoid:
The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 20.

January 20 was of course inauguration day. So the survey was taken before the blizzard of executive orders and the steeply falling grocery prices we have been seeing lately (sarcasm on the steeply falling grocery prices part).

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