The thing about social media is that there is usually only one big survivor in each category.
Youtube is the big full-size/length video service and nobody is a close second.
Twitter was far and away the big site for short messages, and there was no close second for a long time.
Tiktok is the big site for short videos, and there is no close second.
and so on.
It is the "network effect" that makes these winners. That is to say, when a site achieves a critical mass, the others disappear.
Once there is a critical mass, it takes a major change to shake that loose. With Twitter, it became very common for other sites to allow easy embedding of Twitter content onto their sites. And that amplified the network effect. But Musk's takeover of Twitter has steadily been driving users away and that is projected to continue through 2025. Twitter is very close to dropping below critical mass. Threads had some impact, but now that Zuckerberg is not much better than Musk, I expect Threads will die off before it ever really gets started. For the moment, the white knight appears to be Bluesky.
https://mashable.com/article/elon-musk-x-declining-user-base-2025
Twitter is down to about 300M active users. That's still a big number, but many of the biggest users are now shifting their emphasis to other platforms. It may take 24 months or more for the Bluesky effect to really show up in Twitter's numbers because there is great inertia in all these systems. But the direction is clear. Bluesky has about 30M active users, rising as fast as Twitter is falling.
Facebook proper is another matter. Facebook was already challenged because its active user base was aging, with younger people going to Instagram or Tiktok. However, the inertia of Facebook is powerful because of all the common interest groups. There are 4 products I depend on which provide their primary customer support through FB groups. They can't pull the plug easily. And if they can't pull the plug, then I can't leave FB entirely. Two other points of inertia are the marketplace and the event advertising. I hate to admit it, but as of now, FB advertising is very cost-effective for promoting entertainment events that I depend on. And the marketplace is the best way to sell something that is not a good fit for eBay.
My point is that the inertia of these systems guarantees that they will be around for years. BUT ... we can be encouraging al our friends and colleagues to start the transition away from those platforms. I think Zuckerberg is smart enough to see the writing on the wall if millions of users at least cut their FB usage by 75%
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