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LR3

(227 posts)

57. Agreed, this fits very closely with "The Fourth Turning"

Fri Jul 10, 2026, 04:16 PM

17 hrs ago

To be clear, these models do not "predict history" as some are trying to say above to refute them, they are taking reams of historical data and plotting out the cycles that appear with rather astonishing regularity.

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He Predicted America's Crisis Sixteen Years Ago, to the Year. His Database Says It Ends Three Ways. [View all] Dem_in_Nebr. 23 hrs ago OP

Read the whole piece, y'all. K&R ms liberty 23 hrs ago #1

You just gave me my first K&R! Dem_in_Nebr. 23 hrs ago #2

K&R again! erronis 22 hrs ago #9

Dayum! GPV 22 hrs ago #3

Damn thats a good read. N/t gay texan 22 hrs ago #4

Kick for later Unwind Your Mind 22 hrs ago #5

Highly Recommended La Coliniere 22 hrs ago #6

I KNEW My Allusions to 1789 Were More Truth Than.... ColoringFool 22 hrs ago #7

You can just use pen and paper this time BaronChocula 20 hrs ago #37

Ha! I very much dislike knitting! Clickety-click, clickety-click.......! ColoringFool 16 hrs ago #62

Random related thought BaronChocula 14 hrs ago #75

I ain't no Spring chicken! ColoringFool 10 hrs ago #80

Excusez-moi moi, mais. . . Mme. Defarge 15 hrs ago #68

Turchin's article needs to be read by everyone. KS Toronado 22 hrs ago #8

Excellent analysis dlk 22 hrs ago #10

Bookmarked and Recommended CoopersDad 22 hrs ago #11

Unfortunately angrychair 22 hrs ago #12

"The greatest enemy of the United States, as far as both sides of Congress are concerned, is progressives." LymphocyteLover 21 hrs ago #16

Congress has become a path to unlimited wealth angrychair 21 hrs ago #20

who is "they" that will do anything to stop them? LymphocyteLover 1 hr ago #83

Not true relogic 21 hrs ago #24

Well said! DemocracyForever 21 hrs ago #28

Democrats are a diverse coalition party and progressives are an important part of that coalition but are not the base LymphocyteLover 1 hr ago #81

What? yardwork 14 hrs ago #73

The article is very interesting Klondike Kat 22 hrs ago #13

Ok then dweller 22 hrs ago #14

Ditto! Alice B. 21 hrs ago #15

Sooo...like Asimov's Psychohistory progressoid 21 hrs ago #17

are there any fictional characters more relevant to 2026 usa rampartd 20 hrs ago #32

The Mule was sterile, unfortunately our mule is/was not... Wounded Bear 20 hrs ago #39

another asimov concept is the laws of robotics rampartd 18 hrs ago #52

Yes --- Monkey D Luffy Captain of the Straw Hat Pirates in One Piece JT45242 18 hrs ago #50

i'll have to find that one. rampartd 18 hrs ago #51

Well worth everyone's time to read... Silver Gaia 21 hrs ago #18

Brilliant! GiqueCee 21 hrs ago #19

He's talking about Roosevelt's New Deal ... that's the third ending FakeNoose 21 hrs ago #21

Highly recommended democrank 21 hrs ago #22

Here's an important paragraph Bobstandard 21 hrs ago #23

But that makes 195% of societies' outcomes Farmer-Rick 15 hrs ago #69

Kick ybbor 21 hrs ago #25

I have always loved reading history. Snackshack 21 hrs ago #26

A must-read article. Talitha 21 hrs ago #27

Bush vs Gore started this nightmare DemocracyForever 21 hrs ago #29

I could not agree more. hamsterjill 18 hrs ago #54

Exactly! And then, within no time at all, came the Homeland Security Bill... BComplex 16 hrs ago #64

There's a wild card this time, and that's generative AI and the surveillance AND DISTRACTIONS it offers. highplainsdem 21 hrs ago #30

The writer and historian Morris Berman... keep_left 20 hrs ago #31

Great article jmbar2 20 hrs ago #33

Thank you. This is consistent with a book I've been meaning to read, but is still far back in my schedule... NNadir 20 hrs ago #34

Thank you for this post Dem_in_Nebr., and the link to Substack. I also subscibed. c-rational 20 hrs ago #35

Bookmarking to read later. Thank you for sharing this - looks interesting. yellow dahlia 20 hrs ago #36

The one difference is technology and the world economy Buckeyeblue 20 hrs ago #38

Yes, and the impact of AI will be devastating in an Oligarchy that doesn't care if the masses suffer. Doodley 11 hrs ago #77

Wow, read the entire link. I see the bottom line as the powerful's continued use of the "Divide And Conquer" method. Exp 20 hrs ago #40

who do you think is doing the organizing? NJCher 19 hrs ago #47

I agree with you:: Exp 19 hrs ago #48

Excellent article Wild blueberry 20 hrs ago #41

Way worth reading. Another Jackalope 20 hrs ago #42

Hhmm...wonder if the writer meant 1860, not 1870. mwmisses4289 20 hrs ago #43

The dates were a little odd, I agree. yardwork 1 hr ago #82

As a person who did computer modelling of animals while in myPhD program 31j20b3 19 hrs ago #44

Cliodynamics has done better while I wasn't watching 4dog 15 hrs ago #65

There is no scientific database that can predict history JCMach1 19 hrs ago #45

Generations by Strauss and Howe Deminpenn 19 hrs ago #46

I've been collecting these cyclical interpreters. Have a whole file of them. NJCher 18 hrs ago #49

Agreed, this fits very closely with "The Fourth Turning" LR3 17 hrs ago #57

The Fourth Turning is actually by at least one of "Generations" authors Deminpenn 16 hrs ago #63

Which is historiography and not scientific at all... JCMach1 44 min ago #84

A great read revealing math based confirmation B.See 18 hrs ago #53

"May you live in interesting times." is all the heads up I needed. OC375 18 hrs ago #55

We Missed An Off Ramp in 2008 modrepub 17 hrs ago #56

Bookmarked for later read. GoodRaisin 17 hrs ago #58

Read, kick, Rec malaise 17 hrs ago #59

K&R. Excellent article... renordgren 17 hrs ago #60

Sheesh! FINALLY got to this. calimary 17 hrs ago #61

I did, too, 21 years ago and I posted it on DU. Kid Berwyn 15 hrs ago #66

We need the return of the FDR era Clouds Passing 15 hrs ago #67

🤔 who was the President some thought would be the next FDR ? dweller 14 hrs ago #70

Biden's policies were the closest to FDR. yardwork 14 hrs ago #74

FORMIDABLE! Mme. Defarge 14 hrs ago #71

One of the best things I've read in a long time. yardwork 14 hrs ago #72

KNR and bookmarking. niyad 11 hrs ago #76

K&R red dog 1 11 hrs ago #78

Karl Marx predicted this in 1867. BlueTsunami2018 10 hrs ago #79