Mississippi: The Sleeper Flip Senate Seat? [View all]

Even though Mississippi is one of the solid red Southern states, it has a huge Black population that is overwhelmingly Democratic. It holds the highest percentage of black residents in the country of any state at 38%, which casts around 80% of the Democratic vote in that state. Normally Mississippi is not even competitive for Democrats because the White voters vote Republican by an equally lopsided margin, the highest Republican share of any demographic across any state. This matters because the Supreme Court ruling that allows states to remove Black majority districts as partisan gerrymanders (which could affect Mississippi in 2030) is likely to energize Black turnout.

In 2020, despite Biden losing Mississippi by nearly 20%, Democrats got it within 10% despite that race completely going under the radar unlike South Carolina. And in 2023, despite a fairly neutral national environment, Brandon Presley almost won the governor race in Mississippi. Even though that was the only race that tightened up on that ballot, that election going down that way combined with the incumbent in this race appearing to be unpopular based on her previous results shows that it is theoretically possible to flip it.

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