General Discussion

I think the key to Platner's success is that he is going to voters and talking to them. He is articulating a vision for government that is functional while also giving his would-be constituency a chance to tell them about their needs and the trials they've faced.

As you say, Trump has a dominating presence and some people want a "daddy" leader. It is gross to me, but that is beside the point.

The nature of the upcoming election just favors the narratives Platner is pushing and complicates the potential story Collins wants to tell.

Does she claim she represents blue-state Maine?

Does she claim she is a ideologically consistent conservative? Or a pragmatic moderate?

Does she run on her successes with Kavanaugh et al.?

How is she going to keep her voters without mobilizing her opposition? How is she going to build her coalition without alienating her base?

With regard to Bernie Sanders 2016, I think part of his success had nothing to do with his plain talk. I think it was the first emergence of powerful countermedia narratives a la Rogan and other podcasts and social media campaigns. It was the appearance of distrust in institutionalism - we started seeing flat earthers again, for example. Bernie Sanders was the candidate that could run as an establish outsider. Since he was an underdog and since he is legitimately gifted with the best message discipline of anyone in the Democratic caucus, he quickly consolidated support around the populist left + anti-establishment unlikely voters.

I agree entirely that Platner opens up new voters and drives up turnout (to his advantage). That is why I see this election at probably a 5%-9% Platner win and not a 50/50 or 51/49.