General Discussion

When I placed my bet on Steyer advancing, it really was just a flyer.

The only reason I tried to open an account at all is that I firmly believe the felon is incapable of making the necessarily humiliating deal with Iran -- a deal that will paint a giant L for Loser on the forehead of a man constitutionally incapable of sucking up a defeat. Toward the end of May the odds for a bet of No on "US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?" was something like 30%. I figured I'd put my money where my mouth is and make the bet. However, when I tried to open an account I hit a seemingly inescapable circle of failure to deposit funds and gave up.

It wasn't until I saw the Steyer bet down to 3.1 cents that I thought I'd take a flyer and give depositing money into the account another shot. This time it worked.

On the Iran deal, more people are seemingly beginning to "get" that as long as the felon is in the WH, there will be no "deal" because the odds on a deal before 2027 are now 50/50.

I'd go for no deal before 2028, but I think that sometime in 2027, as global and domestic chaos and harms escalate and more trumpublicans "get" that there is literally no way out of the Iran mess with the felon in the WH, they'll start pushing him to resign "for health reasons" to save face or be removed so J.D. can make the deal.