General Discussion

They're more likely to implode than threaten a major power after the depletion of their military and economy from four years of killing themselves in Ukraine.

China is a more interesting argument, but I don't think they're a direct military threat either.

Why? Two reasons come to mind.

One, most of their equipment is still derivatives of old Russian designs and far less capable than what the US and allies have available.

Two, oil. China is a massive net importer of oil, to the tune of 11 million barrels per day. While they have been building onshore storage and filling it, those reserves would last about three months. Probably less given that oil storage is extremely vulnerable to drone strikes.