The Dangerous Munitions Mismatch Between America and Iran [View all]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/03/us-iran-war-air-strikes/686228/

No paywall link
https://archive.li/Ohq0v

The american air campaign against Iran would seem to be a tactical and an operational success. The United States has struck 1,700 targets in Iran and apparently suffered only six fatalities. The Iranian leadership has been disrupted and dozens of senior figures killed, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

But a price must be paid for these short-term successes, and it makes the bigger, strategic picture far less clear. The United States, Israel, and their Gulf allies are using up scarce and costly munitions at an astounding rate. These losses can’t be replenished nearly quickly enough to avoid possible global repercussions, as far more formidable adversaries than Iran—Russia and China—assess the war-fighting capacity that America holds in reserve. If they conclude that the West has burned through too many interceptors to defend itself, Russia might pursue aggressive action against NATO, or China could move against Taiwan.

Two kinds of missiles are in hot demand on the battlefield. Interceptors, such as Patriot missiles, are designed to shoot down other missiles and drones. Offensive weapons, such as Tomahawk cruise missiles, are meant to destroy targets on the ground. Both are in short supply, but the situation with interceptors is particularly dire.

The American interceptors in greatest demand are Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missiles, which are best for defense against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, and Patriots, which are somewhat less expensive and more numerous than THAADs. Last summer, during the 12-day war, the U.S. expended roughly a quarter of its THAAD missiles in defending Israel from the Iranian barrage. Each THAAD missile costs more than $12.8 million, and American defense contractors produce only 96 a year. The Trump administration has allocated funds to increase their production to 400 a year, but this could take up to seven years. That the U.S. will use up in just the next few weeks more than a third of the THAADs that it has stockpiled over the past year is entirely imaginable.

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