TX-SEN: Talarico & Paxton with Narrow Edges in Senate Primaries [View all]

The final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of Texas likely primary voters finds State Rep. James Talarico with a narrow edge over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Primary for US Senate: 52% to 47%. Since the January survey, support for Talarico increased by five points, and support for Crockett increased by nine points. The poll results are within the survey’s margin of error.

“Talarico holds a sizable advantage among voters who voted early, 58% to 41%, while Crockett leads the Election Day vote, 50% to 39%, suggesting the outcome will depend on which group shows up in larger numbers by the end of Tuesday,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

Talarico’s support is driven by white voters, leading Crockett 71% to 29%, Hispanic voters, 60% to 39%, and men, 58% to 41%. Crockett’s support is driven by female voters, leading 51% to 48%, and Black voters, 80% to 18%.

Since the January poll, support for Talarico among white voters increased 14 points (57% to 71%), while Crockett gained two points (27% to 29%). Crockett’s support increased 14 points among Hispanic voters (25% to 39%), while Talarico increased one point (59% to 60%). Crockett maintained 80% among Black voters, while Talarico picked up 10 points (8% to 18%).





https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-primary-poll-talarico-paxton-with-narrow-edges-in-senate-primaries/