War is the new get-rich-quick play on prediction markets [View all]

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/28/iran-strikes-us-prediction-market-bets

War is the new get-rich-quick play on prediction markets
Herb Scribner

Millions of dollars were poured into prediction markets centered on global war and an Iran regime change following the U.S. strikes against Iran Saturday morning.

Major world events — as seen through the Iran strikes and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January — have created new get-rich-quick moments.

"We have functionally created multi million dollar markets where a single rogue action is incentivized to the tune of tens to hundreds of millions dollars; representing a significant risk for global peace," Ryan Kirkley, co-founder of the digital market structure company Global Settlement Network, tells Axios.

As Washington Post reporter Drew Harwell points out, the market Kalshi saw $36 million in bet volume around an Iran regime shift question.

On Polymarket, bets around if Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be out of his position by March 31 skyrocketed, with more than $22 million in trade volume.

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