TX-SEN: Cornyn flatlines in the polls ahead of Texas Republican primary [View all]

ANALYSIS — Last fall, there were already warning signs that Texas Sen. John Cornyn was at serious risk of losing his upcoming Republican primary, even though he had narrowed an initial polling gap with state Attorney General Ken Paxton.

And four months and millions of dollars in ads later, Cornyn might be in worse shape with just days to go until the March 3 primary.

On the surface, Cornyn remains in the hunt. A mid-January Emerson College survey showed Paxton at 27 percent, Cornyn at 26 percent and Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt at 16 percent. The latest RealClearPolitics average found a similar state of the race: Paxton 30 percent, Cornyn 28 percent, Hunt 20 percent.

Since no one is likely to receive a majority of the March 3 vote, Cornyn just needs to finish in the top two to give himself more time to finish on top in a May 26 runoff. But that task looks much easier on paper than in reality. And for an incumbent like Cornyn, it’s less about whether he’s ahead or behind and more about his capacity to grow, electorally.



https://rollcall.com/2026/02/19/john-cornyn-texas-senate-election/