General Discussion

EdmondDantes_

(1,598 posts)

28. Not necessarily.

Wed Feb 11, 2026, 12:47 PM

Feb 11

A new business is estimated to have x employees on average. Today maybe businesses have fewer employees because of productivity gains, perhaps they fail faster. Regardless there was a change in that calculation that resulted from consistent larger than historical errors.

"Since the 2020 benchmark, CES estimates have been subject to persistent and relatively large birth-death forecast errors. To help address these forecasting issues, BLS modified the model-based component of birth-death by incorporating current sample information to inform the forecasts starting with the 2024 benchmark released with the January 2025 Employment Situation. This modification was initially only applied from April to October 2024, known as the post-benchmark period. November 2024, December 2024, and January 2025, as well as monthly estimates, did not at the time use birth-death components calculated with this modification."

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbdqa.htm

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BLS jobs report revises 2025 down to +181,000 total jobs added for the year [View all] Johnny2X2X Feb 11 OP

Yet the billionaires Trump sycophants keep artificially inflating the Stock Market. Chasstev365 Feb 11 #1

What you're seeing is a total divorce for working people and economic indicators Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #3

It's not billionaires doing that, it is us WSHazel Feb 11 #4

If you believe this report, UpInArms Feb 11 #2

Does this count all the jobs lost? nt leftyladyfrommo Feb 11 #5

We need to add 140,000 jobs per month to keep up with population growth Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #6

There is no statistical justification for pulling 800,000 jobs out of 2024 WSHazel Feb 11 #7

You have no clue what you're talking about Wiz Imp Feb 11 #12

Slow your roll WSHazel Feb 11 #15

There was a change in how small businesses are calculated EdmondDantes_ Feb 11 #16

I get that for the most part WSHazel Feb 11 #18

Last time I respond to you but to repeat, you have no clue how the Benchmark revision process works. Wiz Imp Feb 11 #21

I understand what the words say WSHazel Feb 11 #23

Extremely weak & misleading explanation. Wiz Imp Feb 11 #19

Not necessarily. EdmondDantes_ Feb 11 #28

Wow! Dunning Kruger in action! Wiz Imp Feb 11 #17

Are you being deliberately obtuse? WSHazel Feb 11 #20

Right here: Wiz Imp Feb 11 #22

Just so we are aware of your position WSHazel Feb 11 #25

🙄 Wiz Imp Feb 11 #26

One final thing. Wiz Imp Feb 11 #27

Not a hard concept WSHazel Feb 11 #31

I do not believe we added 130,000 jobs in January 2026 OrlandoDem2 Feb 11 #8

That's not a good number Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #9

How has unemployment not gone higher? Johonny Feb 11 #10

It's risen some, like a half point Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #11

Media making it sound like these job numbers Johonny Feb 11 #13

These numbers are a total disaster Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #14

Because many people, myself included, just stop looking TexasBushwhacker Feb 11 #24

MaddowBlog-New report shows 2025 was even worse for U.S. job market than we thought LetMyPeopleVote Feb 11 #29

I'm old enough to remember Johnny2X2X Feb 11 #30