Friends,

May I be candid with you about the U.S. economy? It’s growing nicely, and the stock market has soared. But on what really counts to most Americans — jobs and wages — it’s shitty.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that employers added 130,000 jobs in January. That’s not bad until you see that health care accounted for more than half of them. Construction gained 33,000 jobs. Most other sectors were flat.

I would have expected far more job growth, considering the paucity of new jobs last year.

Artificial intelligence isn’t the culprit directly. I think employers have been cautious about hiring given all the uncertainty in the political economy, starting with Trump’s wildly-vacillating tariffs. But many employers are assessing AI’s likely impact on their businesses, and may be holding back on some of their hiring in anticipation. After all, payrolls comprise two-thirds of a typical business’s costs.

Promoters of AI are working overtime to spin it as benefiting average people. Anyone who watched the Super Bowl ads for AI last Sunday saw how AI is being spun as a wondrous boon to humankind.

Consider the breathless front-page headline in a recent Washington Post: “These companies say AI is key to their four-day workweeks.” The subhead was as euphoric: “Some companies are giving workers back more time as artificial intelligence takes over more tasks.” As the Post explained:

“More companies may move toward a shortened workweek, several executives and researchers predict, as workers, especially those in younger generations, continue to push for better work-life balance.”