TX-SEN: New poll finds Jasmine Crockett, Ken Paxton leading in their primary bids for U.S. Senate [View all]

Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett are leading their respective Senate primary races, according to new public polling released Monday, just over a week before the start of early voting on Feb. 17.

In a statewide sample of 550 likely Republican primary voters conducted between Jan. 20 and Jan. 31, Paxton led incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by 7 percentage points. Across the aisle, a similar poll of 550 likely Democratic primary voters shows Crockett running ahead of state Rep. James Talarico by 8 percentage points. The survey findings are a change from recent polls that found both races to be neck-and-neck.

In both primaries, 12% of respondents said that they were still undecided.

And in hypothetical matchups for the general election, there is “little difference” between the expected performance of a Republican and a Democrat regardless of the candidates, according to the survey conducted by the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs. While it indicates that Paxton and Cornyn could beat Crockett by 2 percentage points, Paxton could do slightly better than Cornyn if facing Talarico. Between 7% and 8% of likely voters said they were still unsure on how to vote in these cases.




https://www.texastribune.org/2026/02/09/texas-senate-race-poll-paxton-crockett-talarico-cornyn-2026-primary/