General Discussion

From OilPrice.com:

- "A U.S. intervention in Venezuela would trigger an immediate oil price spike, but analysts expect prices to fall later if regime change leads to sanctions being lifted."

- "Venezuela’s heavy crude is a perfect fit for U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, meaning increased Venezuelan supply would directly compete with Canadian heavy oil."

- "With over 300 billion barrels of reserves, Venezuela represents a huge long-term prize."

"Wood Mackenzie says Venezuela’s total oil production stands at 900,000 barrels daily this year. That is down from as much as 3 million barrels around 20 years ago and 2 million barrels daily in 2017. Sanctions and years of mismanagement have both contributed to the current state of affairs, but some U.S. observers believe a change in government would also change Venezuela’s oil fortunes with U.S. producers returning to its oilfields."

"This means that after the initial price shock, international benchmarks are set for a further slump, assuming that a regime change would also result in the lifting of sanctions once a friendlier government is installed in Caracas. This is a hypothetical development, but one that pretty much everyone acknowledges as likely. Wood Mackenzie’s Ed Crooks even cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as referring to such a development indirectly in the context of the Trump administration’s efforts to keep oil affordable."

“ 'I think there’s a very good chance that if something happens with Russia-Ukraine, if something happens down in Venezuela, that we could really see oil prices go down even more,' Bessent said on Fox News. 'Oil and gasoline prices are down substantially under President Trump. And really the key to affordability is lower energy [prices].' "

"If that 'something' happens, it will have repercussions for the Canadian oil industry as well. Energy analyst David Blackmon noted this in a recent podcast, saying the return of more Venezuelan crude to Gulf Coast refineries will affect demand for Canadian crude, and it would not affect it favorably. In such a hypothetical context, it would be a smart thing for the Canadian government to expand the access of Canadian crude to markets other than the United States, such as China."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Regime-Change-in-Venezuela-Could-Trigger-Oil-Price-Spike-Then-Slump.html

These "hypothetical developments" are based on the assumption Trump's invasion and regime change in Venezuela will go as planned, but when was the last time something went as planned with Trump?