Don't forget that in 2018, Beto lost to Cruz by a mere 2.6%. In 2024, Cruz only won by 8.5% -- and that was at the peak of MAGA's strength. In less than a year, the coalition that put the felon in the White House has completely collapsed.
I think Talarico is an incredibly strong candidate perfectly suited for the times. Trump is wildly unpopular. And Christian Nationalist overreach is pissing more and more people off. For example, in November a number of school board candidates swept into office by the "bathroom wars" were swept back out of office as communities saw how these crazies disrupted their schools (and people really don't like chaos and nonsense in their local schools). As a former teacher, quality education is a top issue -- and he has been hammering the Texas Christian Nationalist billionaires that are stealing money from public schools to fund Christian Nationalist private education.
There are many indicators that Democrats have gained something like 7 to 13 points, which makes Cruz's margin of 8.5 relatively slender.
On Edit: Not to knock Colin Allred. He is a great candidate. But I think Talarico is exceptional. He has been on my radar as someone destined for the national stage since I first came across his sermon in late 2023.
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