General Discussion

Last edited Thu Dec 4, 2025, 03:28 PM - Edit history (1)

average are higher than previously.

CPI (seasonally adjusted)
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0

At the top right, click on More Formatting Options

On the left are some check boxes. Besides the "Original Data Value" one which is already checked,

Check the 1-Month Percent Change and the 3-Month Percent Change and the 12-Month Percent Change checkboxes

Then click the "Retrieve Data" button.

On the one month change one, there were no negative inflation months since May 2020, except April 2025 (-0.1%), which was followed by +0.2% the following month. So since May 2020, prices have overall on average been increasing every month except for one slight one-month dip, which was reversed the following month and then some.

As for peak inflation on a year-over-year basis (the bottom table and graph, this is the 12-month one), that was June 2022 at 9.0% (going all the way back to January 2015, the default start date of the graph and tables).

If you set the start date all the way back to 1970, the peak year-over-year inflation was 14.6% in March and April of 1980.

Year-over-year inflation has been climbing for 5 straight months, and is now at 3.0%. So if you're hearing that inflation is coming down, no it's not. And this is from the admin's own numbers.

Edited to add the year-over-year CPI graph and table from January 2015 to September 2025 (the latest)

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I like the 3-month average as it's a more recent measure than the 12-month one, but more than a "one-off" single month data point. In the last 3 months (the middle table and graph), prices increased 0.9%. That annualizes to about a 3.6% inflation rate (using the actual index values for the calculation, and taking into account compounding, it comes to 3.62%. And rising).

Edited to add 3 month rolling average, % change over 3 months:

To roughly annualize, multiply the numbers by 4