General Discussion

Musk bought the election, pure and simple. Musk was not even on the radar for discussion until comparatively late in Trump's campaign, then suddenly he was everywhere. He well exceeded any campaign finance limits, and very likely also suborned not only voters but also critical election officials in key states, not to mention quite possibly having had a hand in corrupting critical tabulators (you don't need to do it nationwide, just a few key areas like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which were leaning towards Harris). Add in mail-in ballots that simply never got to the counting places in the first place, and you see all of the pieces in place for a stolen election. I honestly wish that the Dems HAD contested the results, but we moved very quickly beyond that point with nary a peep.

Trump is a blackmailer. He has long been at the heart of a pattern where vocal critics have become staunch allies seemingly overnight, of making threatening phone calls (usually through proxies) and of attacking anyone who crosses him. Ordinarily I would not expect Trump to do more than vaguely acknowledge his debt to Musk, yet he all but made the man his co-president. Why? Because Musk holds something profound over him. Musk made it possible for him to throw the election his way, not just in quasi-legal but unethical ways (his support on X) but by rigging the election.Trump actually lost the election.

I've been thinking about the implications of this. We've been there a couple of times in the last few decades. Bush vs. Gore in 2000 was the most obvious, but I think that was probably a genuinely close election. Trump vs. Clinton was dirty tricks and the FBI's last minute October surprise, but Clinton also had run a remarkably lackluster campaign, had a bruising primary against Bernie Sanders, and Trump and Clinton had been trading positions for several weeks before hand. I was bummed, but not surprised, when she lost. However, we have never had a situation where the election results themselves were manipulated, and it is this that I believe Musk facilitated.

We have no provision in the Constitution about what happens with a corrupt election, if it is discovered after the election results are certified. In most states this IS spelled out - the courts usually try the person and if they are found guilty on corruption charges, then typically new elections are scheduled. However, the US Constitution is notoriously silent on this particular state of affairs. Assuming that there is ever a legitimate government again, this may be one of the first things proposed.

Nonetheless, such a revelation would also undermine any legitimacy that he has left. In the immediate term, that doesn't mean much, but it does mean that the chances that will be able to get other backers is low (I think the evidence about how quickly Trump turned on Musk is likely to make it MUCH harder for other deep-pocketed backers to want to support him). This is going to matter in the 2026 elections in particular, because IF the Democrats do manage to stage a comeback (something I think much more likely without Musk injecting his own dirty money into the race) the likelihood that he will be forced to resign by the Senate is considerably higher.

It would mean JD Vance becomes President. I don't particularly like Vance, but I also suspect that at the moment his current policy positions are primarily protective camouflage. Vance is not a syphilitic, drug-addicted, revenge-driven, senile dictator wannabe. He was, in the Senate, a fairly unassuming Republican - conservative, but not overtly crazy. He is not well liked by MAGA, and if he were to succeed Trump, he would likely not have the support of the hard core crazies. If Trump was fired, he would turn on Vance almost immediately. I also suspect that IF he succeeded Trump, Vance would likely clear out the MAGA crazies from the administration, and, as the Trump/Musk feud turns into a bad divorce, will probably also send the Tech Bro Mafia packing. I don't expect him to be a good president, but I cannot in any universe see him being even remotely as bad as Trump is.