General Discussion

By Jess Thomson published 22 hours ago

Measles was eliminated in the U.S. decades ago, but millions of new measles cases could pop up across the country over the next 25 years if vaccination rates continue to fall, new modeling suggests.

In a study published Thursday (April 24) in JAMA, scientists forecasted the number of measles cases that might be seen in coming decades if state-level vaccination rates stay steady, decline or increase. If vaccination rates drop by 10%, they found, there could be 11.1 million cases of measles across the U.S. in the next 25 years.

If vaccination rates stay the same as they are today, 851,300 cases of measles could occur in the same timeframe. In that scenario, the disease could feasibly "reestablish endemicity" within about two decades, meaning it could start to spread consistently in the U.S. once more ...

https://www.livescience.com/health/viruses-infections-disease/were-already-on-the-precipice-of-disaster-deadly-measles-outbreaks-could-explode-across-the-us-in-the-next-25-years-if-vaccinations-fall-model-predicts