General Discussion

in 2026).

I am usually very accurate with my Senate picks. IF Casey (PA) had won in 2024, I would have called every single race correctly.

Even if we sweep the 6 remotely close races in 2026 (plus win a potential wild card loss tossed in, in VA, see below), we would only get to 50-50 (and thus Vance breaks ties)

In terms of Rethugs at risk in 2026 (potentially 3):

NC (Tillis is by far our best chance to flip a seat Red to Blue, unless Collins retires in ME. Roy Cooper hopefully runs. Jeff Jackson also may run, but he just was elected NC AG. US ex US House Representative (he retired this year as he knew he would lose his redistricted seat) Wiley Nickel will likely run, but he was one of the most conservative Dems in the House, and would be the most conservative Dem US Senator unless Golden of ME (see below) runs and wins. That said, obviously Nickel would be FAR better than any Rethug.)

ME (IF Collins retires, we very likely flip it, but if she runs, we will have a real dog fight on our hands. We have a real problem in ME with turncoat Dem voters defecting and voting for the POS Collins, she has brainwashed far too many of them into thinking she is true moderate. Stephen King was by far our best shot in 2020, but I doubt he runs. He refused to run in 2020, and in 2027 he turns 80yo. ME Governor Janet Mills also turns 80 in 2027. Chellie Pingree turns 72 in 2027, and she was beaten badly by Collins the last time she ran against her. Our best 2 candiates are probably the recently term limited ME State Senate leader Troy Jackson, but he may run for Governor to replace Mills, and then Jared Golden. That said, IF Golden wins, he very likely becomes the most conservative Democratric US Senator. Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of WA, plus Henry Cuellar of TX (in deep legal trouble atm) are the 3 most conservative US House Dems left, even more than Suozzi from NY. That said, Golden of course would be better than Collins or any other Rethug).

KY (McTurtle is very very likely done and dusted, and Andy Beshear is by far our best hope, BUT KY (like several other Red states) is so hard to get a Dem Senator elected in. Even popular Dem Governors (like Beshear) struggle to make the leap, plus Beshear has said he does not want to run for the US Seante in 2026) Beshear is, unfortunately, the only KY Dem who would have a real shot.

We have 3 seats at risk, and one wild card, in 2026:

GA Jon Ossoff

MI Gary Peters

NH Jeanne Shaheen

VA (wild card...... IF Mark Warner retires and Youngkin runs)



In 2028 the Rethugs only have 2 seats at actual risk (one more than the other)

WI Ron Johnson (the most likely for us to flip)

NC Ted Budd (but he is far more popular than Tillis)

I simply do not see us having real shots at flipping a Senate seat in Red FL or Red OH.

We have to defend 5 seats that are at risk in 2028:

AZ Mark Kelly

GA Raphael Warnock

PA John Fetterman

NV Catherine Cortez Masto

NH Maggie Hassan