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Rhiannon12866

(225,879 posts) Mon Jan 13, 2025, 05:46 AM Monday

Which Army Will FAIL First in Ukraine? w/ Phil Ittner - Thom Hartmann

The war in Ukraine continues into 2025.

Thom is joined by veteran war correspondent Phil Ittner with an update on what could be the concluding chapters of the war. - 01/12/2025.

TRANSCRIPT

Thom: With us, our buddy Phil Itner, the veteran war correspondent based out of Kyiv, Ukraine. Host of the brilliant podcast On the Edge, available wherever fine podcasts are found. You can find him over on Blue Sky at @itnerphilip (that’s I-T-N-E-R-P-H-I-L-I-P). He also has a video blog on YouTube under Philip Itner. Phil, welcome back to the program. How are things in Ukraine today?

Phil: Thanks, Thom. Well, happy 2025, I suppose. Things have been relatively status quo over the holidays. We got hit pretty hard, but on the battlefield, there’s been some movement near Kursk by Ukrainian forces. They’ve launched another assault from a different direction.

Thom: Kursk? That’s in Russia, isn’t it?

Phil: That’s right. This is Kursk inside the Russian Federation. Ukrainian forces have been there for months, fighting not only Russian troops but also North Korean forces lent by Pyongyang. This is more than an irritant for Putin—it’s an embarrassment that Ukrainians are bringing the war into Russian territory. They can’t seem to dislodge the Ukrainians. Not only that, but Ukraine has launched a second thrust from a different direction, targeting those North Korean troops specifically, and they appear to be making progress.

At the same time, in Donbas, Russian forces continue grinding forward, gaining kilometer by kilometer. But Thom, they’re losing around 1,500 troops a day—that’s 30,000 to 45,000 Russian soldiers taken off the battlefield each month, either killed or so severely injured that they won’t return. They’ve crossed the 800,000 casualty mark. By May or June, if trends hold, they’ll surpass a million casualties. That’s devastating for the Russians, especially since they’ve achieved none of their strategic goals.

Thom: Incredible. What about the Ukrainian side?

Phil: Ukrainian forces are exhausted, undermanned, and facing command issues, including cases of soldiers going AWOL. Both sides are locked in this grueling struggle. Kyiv keeps saying, “Just leave, and we’ll stop,” but Russia can’t walk away either, having failed to meet its objectives. Putin has shifted Russia to a war economy, mobilized hundreds of thousands of men, and his economy is struggling—not just due to sanctions but also because of the war economy itself. If Russia demobilizes, they’ll face social and economic chaos, with hundreds of thousands of traumatized soldiers returning to stagnant towns.

Thom: It sounds like a post–World War II scenario.

Phil: Exactly. Wartime economies are stimulative, but only temporarily—it’s a sugar high. Putin is trapped. The entire situation is a mess, Thom. Zelensky has suggested this might be the year for a ceasefire, but a lasting peace? That’s a distant hope. It’s a complex conflict with no easy solutions.

Thom: Big picture question for you, Phil. Since World War II, international law has operated on the principle that one nation does not absorb another by force. Russia broke that rule with Ukraine. China is threatening to do the same with Taiwan, and arguably did so with Tibet. The U.S. has historically upheld this principle. Now, Trump is saying he wouldn’t rule out using force to seize Greenland or Panama. What do you make of this?

Phil: Thom, I firmly believe Trump is compromised and acting in ways that benefit Putin. While Mueller’s report was flawed, Trump doesn’t need to be openly allied with the Kremlin. He’s a disruptor, sowing chaos both domestically and internationally. Suggesting the U.S. could seize Greenland or Panama undermines the very principles of international law, legitimizing what Putin has done in Ukraine.