Trump wanted to drive oil prices up, and he did. Iran, Iraq and the Gulf States were figuring out workarounds, which made his blockade of the Strait irrelevant. Now there is a "deal" to end it.

I don't think Trump was ever trying to win a war against Iran.

Have you checked with Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait City on that? Apparently they didn't get the memo. But hey! All the experts are wrong of course and this regime of utter morons are really evil geniuses. Do you really believe that?

And we say reich wingers are far too conspiratorial. Seems to me such things respect no political boundaries. Occam shakes his head and facepalms.

Trump, Bessent, Hegseth and I believe Rubio all, at one point or another, referred to the U.S. blockade of the Strait. Their words.

This is Occam's Razor stuff. The simplest explanation is the most likely one. They all said that the U.S. was blockading the Strait. Virtually everyone knew that a military conflict with Iran would result in the Strait being blockaded by Iran, and by us to keep Iranian oil from getting out. If the Trump Administration took an action that had an obvious reaction, then the most likely explanation is that they wanted this reaction, or were at least OK with it happening.

Bessent was publicly pitching US oil around the world, which is a sign that the Administration was fine with the higher oil prices.

The alternative is that the U.S. started an attack on Iran that virtually every military leader would have told them would be unsuccessful and would result in the Strait being blockaded, and the entire political, military, diplomatic and business leadership of the U.S. was surprised by an outcome that was completely predictable.

It also fits well with them not understanding the situation, going off half cocked, and listening to the wrong people, i.e., Netanyahu and his lunatic government of West Bank settler types. Which regime is nuttier depends on what day it is. Since then, they've been smearing lipstick all over a pig, desperately trying to get out of a very bad situation of their own making. That may SEEM like they know what they're doing, but probably not. Thus, the "deal" which really amounts to giving away much of the store to Iran. The only real, long term winner in all this. Given their track record the last +/- 500 days, you give Donnie's band of dipshits far more credit than they deserve.

That is the simplest explanation, thus my mention of Occam. And that seems to be the consensus of many experts, and personally, I'll stick with the experts. They done the work, have decades of experience, and a track record, vs. faceless opinions on the interwebs. That's the thing that triggered me. Until we've done the work and have the chops in that field, we ain't experts. Don't act like one. That's the root of much of our recent troubles. The "war on expertise" isn't resigned just to the right.

Asking for a friend.

May Trump and Putin both fall together.