Let's talk about Trump's big Indiana lame duck test... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump's big Indiana lame duck test.

Trump's been waddling back and forth along the edge of the duck pond for months. He consistently violates the first rule of command. Never give an order that won't be obeyed. He constantly commands the Republican party to do various things. And for the most part, it's worked, but there's been major breaks, most notably when it comes to redistricting and of course the Epstein files, but also on budgeting and the Fed.

That signals that Republican politicians know he's approaching the end of his time in office. But what about the average rank and file Republican? Are they still obedient to Trump's whims? And more importantly, will they still vote the way he tells them to? Well, we're going to find out soon.

Indiana very publicly refused to play along with Trump's nationwide redistricting campaign where he wanted to gerrymander to create more seats for Republicans. Trump said he was going to punish the Republican state senators who tried to represent their constituents wishes instead of obeying orders from DC. Millions have been spent by Republicans trying to oust eight Republican senators.

So far, it doesn't seem to be going well. And the incumbents seem to have the support of Republican voters in Indiana, many of whom support Trump's national policies, but feel he should stay out of their state politics.

On May 5th, the primary in Indiana happens. If Trump succeeds in ousting the incumbents, he'll buy a little more time before his lame duck status kicks in. A win here for Trump would help keep Republican politicians in line because he can still damage their careers. However, if the incumbents win, Trump's out of leverage. It'll show Republican politicians that not only is Trump out of time politically, he's also out of influence with the base. That means Republican politicians can safely ignore Trump's whims without worrying about electoral fallout.

A mixed result would weaken Trump considerably, but probably wouldn't give Republican politicians the feeling that they're finally free from his poor leadership.

In the meantime, Democrats are benefiting from Trump's fascination with trying to keep Republicans in line and obedient to his whims. Every dollar he and his allies spend fighting other Republicans during the midterm primaries because of Trump's personal grievances is a dollar Republicans don't have to fight Democrats during the general election.

Predictions on the outcome of the Indiana primary vary, but most seem to see Trump only partially succeeding. One GOP player told the press, “My guess is it's going to be a mixed bag. Everybody is going to have their spin.”

That spin is going to be important and it'll be immediate. Count on Trump holding a megaphone to any of these races where the incumbent loses and trying to suggest that he'll get the others later. The power of Trump largely rests in the hands of the Indiana voters.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.