Let's talk about Trump, Iran, and blackmail.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Trump, Iran, and blackmail.

After Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz was open turned out to be false, Trump made the bold proclamation that, "They can't blackmail us." What's considered blackmail to a real estate developer is also known as normal foreign policy on the international scene. Saying you won't be blackmailed is a great talking point, but the problem is that with US negotiators trying to work out some kind of deal to reopen the strait. It denies the reality of the situation.

Those negotiators have to deal with the world as it is, not the world as Trump says it is on social media or in his little announcements. Trump said the strait was open, but it wasn't. Trump said Iran had agreed to turn over its uranium stockpiles, but it hadn't. Trump said Iran's navy was destroyed, obliterated, and gone. Then what exactly was shooting at ships trying to transit the strait when Trump said it was open?

Here's the hard reality. Iran can absolutely blackmail us. If us means the global economy. Trump's elective war gave Iran something more powerful than a nuke. A demonstration of the effects of the closure of the strait.

In Trump's mind and social media posts, the economy is doing fine. You don't mind the gas price increases. You don't mind paying more for food. Inflation is cool with you. And all of this sorts itself out immediately as soon as there's some kind of deal. But none of that is true. Every day the strait remains closed the economic damage is increased and it will eventually hit a point that raises the political cost to him to a price that's more than he can bear.

Trump's negotiators have to deal with reality, not the nationalist fever dream of a president that is detached from reality. Iran appears willing to talk, but Trump consistently overplays his hand. He doesn't have the cards.

Iran's deputy foreign minister said, "I can tell you that no enriched material is going to be shipped to the United States. This is non-starter and I can assure you that while we are ready to address any concerns that we do have, we're not going to accept things that are non-starters."

When talking about the current state of things, Trump said, "We're offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope that they take it because if they don't, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant and every single bridge in Iran. No more Mr. Nice Guy."

I'm sure Trump wouldn't consider saying do X or Y will happen as blackmail. It's just the realities of foreign policy.

The reality of the situation tells us that Iran can keep that strait closed for extended periods with minimal military equipment and expenditures. When you think about the ships that were fired upon recently, their drones aren't high-tech or expensive. All of that was accomplished for less than the cost of a single Tomahawk missile.

Undoubtedly, the brain trust Trump assembled told him that his move against Iran would be simple. Those previous presidents were just weak. Now the reality has collided with American exceptionalism. Those other presidents were smarter and better understood the risks of an elective war against Iran.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.