Let's talk about Swalwell and Gonzales heading for the door early.... - Belle of the Ranch

Well, howdy there Internet people. It's Belle again. So, today we're going to talk about Swalwell and Gonzalez heading to the door early.

Well, Monday was an eventful day for Congress. Democratic Representative Eric Swalwell of California and Republican Representative Tony Gonzalez of Texas both announced they were leaving Congress early.

Swalwell's announcement came first after there was an immense amount of pressure brought by his own party to drop out of the California's governor's race and to leave Congress. There were pretty clear indications that his own party was going to move for expulsion after allegations by four women were made. Not the least of which was about a dozen congressional Democrats deciding to send campaign donations from Swalwell on to charities.

The allegations involved range from sexual harassment to assault. In a statement, Swalwell said, "Expelling anyone in Congress without due process within days of an allegation being made is wrong, but it's also wrong for my constituents to have me distracted from my duties."

On the other side of the aisle, the story had been simmering for a while. It involved Gonzalez admitting to an affair with a former staffer who died by lighting herself on fire. Republican leadership did not immediately call for him to step down, but as the pressure mounted from Democrats in Congress and his own constituents, it seemed more and more likely that he might seek an early exit.

In his statement, he said, "There is a season for everything, and God has a plan for us all. When Congress returns tomorrow, I will file my retirement from office. It has been my privilege to serve the great people of Texas.

The questions that came in about this were all about the political ramifications. Well, the big political implication here is in the governor's race in California. The state has unusual primary rules. One of them is that the top two candidates in the primary advance to the general election. Even if they're both from the same party this year, because there are so many Democrats running in the governor's primary, there was a nonzero chance that two Republican candidates could end up being the only two names on the ballot in the overwhelmingly Democratic state.

The polling showed Democratic voters divided to the point that they were diluting their own power. There was significant concern among Democratic party strategists that voters in the typically blue state were so accustomed to simply voting for the candidate they support the most that they wouldn't consider voting tactically in the primary. Most polls showed Swalwell at the top or at least close to the top of the Democratic candidates.

With him out of the race, those votes will be dispersed among other candidates and it reduces the risk of getting two Republicans on the governor's ballot. After the shakeup of the race, the top two Democratic candidates are likely to be billionaire Tommy Steyer and former US Representative Katie Porter.

While that's most likely, if all of Swalwell's supporters were to coalesce around one of the other candidates, they would immediately end up in the lead. So, it's likely to take a week or two and some new polling to sort all this out.

Anyway, it's just a thought. Y'all have a good day.